花旗:恒指估值不贵仍有上升空间 十二个月目标28,226点
花旗银行投资策略及环球财富策划部主管黄(柏)宁在下半年投资前瞻电话会议上表示,目前恒指估值并不昂贵,预计市盈率与过去十年平均约11.5倍相近。结合每股盈利预测、内地电力需求及广义货币供应增长等因素,预期未来十二个月恒指仍有上升空间,目标为28,226点。
他指,受惠於美国中概股相继来港上市,料将带动港股未来交投,因此调高港股日均成交额预测,今年预测由990亿元上调至1,040亿元,至2022年日均成交额估计或进一步增至1,380亿元,意味年均复合增长率可由过往的单位数,提升至16%。
黄(柏)宁提到,受疫情打击经济等影响,预期港股今年的企业每股盈利有下行压力,而市场今年以来将恒指每股盈利调低18.6%,稍後有可能会进一步下调预测。板块方面,中资股中他看好互联网、健康护理、通讯服务、消费行业,认为可主要受惠於内地投资新型基建的结构性增长及人口老化带来的机会,同时有关行业主要发展内需市场,与出口相关风险有限。
他又称,本港楼市有结构性因素支持,包括低息环境及供求失衡,过去两月市场气氛亦有改善,睇楼人数有见回升,至於未来复苏情况如何,相信需视乎疫情有否改善。
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