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新高教(2001.HK):新疆項目尾款提前收回,獲多家大行看好,提升目標價
格隆匯 06-29 13:29

格隆匯6月29日丨近期新高教(2001.HK)發出公告,已經提前收回新疆項目尾款,風險解除。收回新疆項目預付款項後,新高教將於2020年衝回近人民幣2000萬元的撥備,利潤水平將得到增厚。

近期,新高教也先後獲招商國際證券、申萬宏源、摩根士丹利和工銀國際等多家券商給出評級,其中,招商國際證券重申新高教(2001.HK)“買入”評級,目標價上調至6.3港元;申萬宏源首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級,目標價7.61港元;摩根士丹利提升評級至 “增持”評級,目標價提升至5.6港元;工銀國際維持“跑贏大市”評級,上調目標價至5.9港元。

摩根士丹利:在政策利好的大環境下,預計新高教“學費將持續增長,新疆項目風險解除”,將評級由“持股觀望”提升至“增持”,目標價由3.2港元提升至5.6港元。

摩根士丹利指出,近期政府發佈政策加快獨立學院轉設工作,獨立學院將很快完成轉設並之後不再支付大校管理費,預計新高教完成旗下兩所獨立學院轉設後未來毛利率會有所提升。該行認為,新高教新疆項目風險解除,同時預計公司將提升學費,通過改善學生層次結構,其平均學費在未來五年將持續保持高增長。預計2020年收入增長將在20%以上,淨利潤預計在2020年和2021年增長36%和29%。

申萬宏源:內生增長強勁,併購重啟可期,估值修復正當時, 給予其 “買入”評級,目標價 7. 61港元。

申萬宏源指出,新高教集團上市早,領先於同業於資本市場獲得了足夠的資金用以併購。公司於 2018 年接連收購的三所學校,其生均收購成本遠低於2018年和2019年行業生均收購成本。這一方面顯示提前佈局併購讓公司避免了近兩年高校併購市場中的激烈競爭。同時也展現公司在談判時擁有了強大的議價能力。此外在公司先進的管理系統支持下,被併購院校經營持續優化,公司整體盈利能力增長迅猛。未來預計隨着公司收入和利潤持續強勁增長,以及資產負債表的不斷改善,公司估值將得以持續恢復。同時,因為贏得新疆項目的訴訟,初期投資將得以收回將進一步提振收益。受益於集團強勁的在校生內生增長以及由出色教學質量和投後管理所帶來的學費漲價能力,預計新高教集團的收入將在未來三年複合增長率 23.1%。

工銀國際:受近期多項政策利好,新高教盈利增長將因此受益,維持“跑贏大市”評級,目標價提升至5.9港元。

工銀國際認為:近期政府頒佈多項政策利好高教板塊,新高教也將受益於這些政策。其中政府近期頒佈的加快促進獨立學院轉設的政策,將促進新高教加快其旗下兩所獨立學院的轉設,預計兩所獨立學院的轉設進度將迅速提升,遠高於公司原本的預計。該行也指出,近期新高教新疆項目風險解除,同時完成了河南學校的餘下股份收購,市場情緒受此提振。其中新疆項目之前的撥備也將在今年撥回利潤,河南學校的餘下股份收購PE也低於首次併購。

招商證券國際:利好性政策推動業績增長,重申新高價(2001.HK)“買入”評級,上調目標價至6.3港元。

招商證券國際認為利好性政策推動新高教業績增長,公司估值穩步回升。該行認為新高教在學生人數增長和獨立學院轉設方面均有良好契機,同時學費提升驅動盈利增長強勁。同時招商證券國際認為,受到近期專升本學額增加的利好性政策推動,招商證券國際增強了對新高教收入增長前景的信心,預計20/21財年收入將同比增長31%/17%。此外,就獨立學院轉設而言,新高教旗下兩所獨立學院轉設工作已經在進程中。總體而言,認為獨立學院轉設的優先級比以前高得多,並且可以預期轉設程序會加速。

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