中金：内地建材板块景气向好 关注海螺水泥(0914.HK)等股
中金发表报告指，展望下半年，预期在稳增长政策支撑以及竣工端回暖趋势下，中国建材板块整体景气向好。同时，中期来看，该行认为水泥板块受益优秀的竞争新格局，有望维持高盈利韧性；消费类建材在新型城镇化与地产集採红利共同驱动下，叠加多品类平台化初见雏形，龙头公司将迎来新成长的黄金时期；玻纤行业供需格局呈现底部改善趋势，关注龙头公司竞争优势与成长性。
该行表示，过去十年中，水泥行业完成了大规模的区域整合，自律限产机制亦逐步成熟。因而，面对需求的短期波动，认为优秀的格局往往能够扮演区域价格的减震器，预计淡季全国水泥价格回调幅度可控，而在稳增长政策支撑下，下半年旺季水泥市场需求有望维持强劲。
中金指，优质龙头全年量稳价升，盈利具备超预期空间，区域上看好西北水泥龙头业绩弹性。未来几年，该行预期水泥行业仍将处于高景气平台超预期的盈利韧性、行业向上游延展的资源属性，有望带动行业估值中枢重塑。
消费建材方面，中金提到展望下半年，随着竣工复苏，预期与竣工家装相关的消费建材品类(石膏板、管材等)有望受益。同时，中期来看预期新型城镇化与精装房集採红利有望共同驱动消费建材B端成长动能。未来两至三年，该行认为B端龙头仍处在市场份额提升，品类横向扩张的黄金时期，持续看好防水材料、建筑涂料、塑料管、石膏板和五金件等板块B端龙头。
至于玻璃行业，该行指观察到5月以来，浮法玻璃基本面已现拐点，预计今年下半年竣工面积按年增速约12%，支撑玻璃需求稳步释放，价格或呈现V型走势；同时，受到原油价格大跌影响，成本端如纯硷、石油焦、重油等均按年大幅下行，下半年玻璃单箱毛利按年增幅可观，对龙头全年业绩形成支撑。
于个股层面，水泥板块中金建议关注龙头，包括海螺水泥(0914.HK)及中国建材(3323.HK)，目标价分别77港元及11.42港元，评级同为跑赢大市；以及西北市场区域弹性标的如西部水泥(2233.HK)。消费建材则建议关注中国联塑(2128.HK)，而玻璃板块看好信义玻璃(0868.HK)，目标价10.73港元，评级跑赢大市。
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