植耀辉: ATM及港交所(00388.HK)势强 维他奶(00345.HK)宜观望
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，疫情继续在全球蔓延，个别地区如美国正蕴酿第二波爆发，身边同事朋友均异口同声表示，今年外游计划应该也要泡汤了。但始终健康要紧，而且本地不少商场推出大量优惠，虽然笔者购物意欲仍低，但本地疫情有所纾缓，商场人流亦见反弹，始终也是好现象。
至於大市方面，腾讯(00700.HK)继续发功，令大市冲高至24,900点之上。当然，论近期强势，除ATM外肯定要数港交所(00388.HK)，始终有中概股第二上市憧憬，而且近日成交亦普遍维持在千亿元水平，肯定有利其业务表现。不过，其股价短期走势过往亦较易受市场气氛左右，故除非港股能出现突破，否则股价料需先「抖抖气」了。
另外，原先想跟大家跟进大家乐(00341.HK)业绩表现，但发现大快活(00052.HK)将於下周二公布业绩，故下周再作分析，今日(24日)先谈另一只已出全年业绩之公司维他奶(00345.HK)。维他奶虽然股东应占溢利倒退23%，但已较发盈警时之倒退25%至35%为好。而单计下半年业绩，股东盈利仅得266.9万元，同比大跌98.5%，不过亦总比录得亏损好。而且因受疫情影响，业绩差亦是预期之内，故股价在绩後不跌反升。不过笔者认为，维他奶前景仍充满相当多不确定性，特别是内地发展增速放缓以及竞争加剧两大因素，值得投资者关注。
随着本地业务日趋饱和，维他奶亦早布局内地发展。事实上早年表现相当出色，在2017/18年度，当时增速达到38%。由於有可观增长，令其一举变成备受市场瞩目之「内需股」，估值亦进一步获上调；不过到2018/19年度，增速已放慢至25%，而上/下半财年增速更分别为32%及13%。到2019/20年度，上半财年增速其实已放缓至只得8%，下半财年受疫情影响，倒退近23%。当然，集团憧憬内地业务将於下年逐步重拾增长，但能否如愿仍有待观察。
另外一个要留意的地方，就是现时内地植物蛋白饮品竞争激烈。据资料显示，於2014至2018年期间，内地包装豆奶饮品市场(包括豆浆)年复合销量和销售额增长分别为9.3%和12%，同期牛奶增幅只得1.1%及4.6%。所以伊利、达利食品(03799.HK)及维维等企业亦相继进军豆奶市场。维他奶过去较着重於一、二线城市，在该些地区发展有相当优势；然而到三、四线城市，竞争则变得相当激烈，而且还要面对地区品牌挑战。所以过去数年，维他奶在推广开支持续增加，亦变相削弱盈利表现。
最後，以现价计维他奶估值不算低，若未来内地业务未见太大改善，估值或会被下调。故现阶段暂不建议大家吸纳。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，持有阿里巴巴股份)~
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