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小米集團-W(01810.HK):618銷售增速超預期,Q2海外承壓但長期向好,維持“買入”評級,目標價16.00港元
格隆匯 06-22 09:32

機構:太平洋證券

評級:買入

目標價:16.00港元

事件:

公司官方微博披露 618 全平台銷售額突破 100億元, IOT 方面拿下京東/天貓/蘇寧三平台176 項第一。

點評:

618 小米全平台銷售額突破 100 億元,同比增長 54%,拆分品類來看:

智能手機方面,小米 10 在僅僅降價 300 元的情況下,拿下京東平台3500-4500價位段的銷量第一,Redmi K30Pro拿下京東 5G手機銷量第一。2020 年作為5G 手機加速普及的元年,小米在京東平台拿下 618 當日的前三(小米 10、K30Pro、K30 極速版)和 618 期間(6.1~6.18)5G 的手機銷量的前二(小米 10、K30Pro)。單品排行前十中有 3 款手機上榜(Redmi Note8/Note 8Pro,K30Pro) 。我們認為從單手機榜單來看,最大的驚喜就是小米 2020 年第一次衝擊中高端市場即宣告大獲成功。而另一方面,而在小米 618 旗艦在在 5G 榜單上長時間的霸榜更是宣告了其在 2020 年大力發展 5G 手機的成效,從我們預估的數據來看,整個 618期間,Redmi K30Pro在京東平台的出貨量在 45 萬左右,而小米 10 系列(米 10/10Pro)在京東平台的出貨量合計在35萬左右, K30i的出貨量在12萬左右,三款 5G手機者合計出貨量接近 100 萬水平。

IOT 業務方面,小米電視在 618 零點開始僅 37 秒單京東平台就銷售超過 10000台、 14分鐘銷售額破億。最終小米電視成功拿下京東、天貓雙平台的電視銷量、銷售額雙第一的佳績。此外,小米電視還分別拿下 43寸、60 寸、70寸、75 寸四個尺寸段的京東、天貓、蘇寧三平台銷量、銷售額第一。其他 IOT產品如小米盒子、手環、二級、路由器、智能門鎖等品類均拿下京東銷量第一。

受到疫情影響,雖然國內消費從 4月開始逐漸恢復,但是海外市場,特別是印度市場的全面封鎖,讓公司 Q2 收入和利潤端都承壓。但長期來看,我們依舊看好公司在 IoT 領域的先發優勢,“手機+AIoT”戰略的持續發力,以及實施雙品牌戰略之後智能手機業務有望實現份額穩步上升,全年來看,我們認為整體來説疫情對公司銷量的影響基本可控。 我們預計公司 2020-2021 年 NON-GAAP 每股收益分別為 0.48 和 0.64 元,對應 2020-2021 年經調整 PE 分別為 24 和 18倍,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:業務發展不及預期、海外新冠肺炎疫情等。 

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