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聚焦5G手機機遇,AIoT生態圈持續進化,華盛證券首次覆蓋並予小米集團(1810.HK)“推薦”評級
格隆匯 06-19 19:56

華盛證券首次覆蓋並給予小米集團(1810.HK)“推薦”評級,其核心觀點如下: 

1Q20 首戰告捷。1Q20 收入同比增加 13.6%至 497 億人民幣,經調整後淨利 潤同比增長 10.6%至 23 億。境外收入佔比首次達到總收入 50%。Q1 出貨 2920 萬台,全球份額 10.7%,五大智能手機廠家只有小米和 vivo 的同比出貨量 是增長,小米增速最快,達 4.7%。

小米在中國內地市場的 5G 市場滲透率達 25.9%。小米 10 和 10 Pro 兩個月 累計出貨量超過 100 萬台。在印度連續 11 個季度保持手機出貨量第一,市 場份額約 31.2%。於歐洲智能手機出貨量同比增長 58.3%,市佔率達到 14.3% 位列前四,西班牙市場首次取得市佔率第一。預期小米在國內市佔率會有提 升。在印度市場維持高個位數的增長,歐洲市場份額繼續提升,將成為公司 中期的增長點。

預期公司的 ASP 會持續上升。行業處於由 4G 切換至 5G 重要時刻,5G 手機 將加速滲透,高單價有望提振手機公司收入。1Q20 小米手機的全球 ASP 為 1038 元,同比上升 7.2%,環比上升 9.8%,增速顯着。小米 19 年執行 4 G 手機清庫存,輕裝上陣,聚焦 5G 手機市場的機遇。

確立 AIoT 戰略,生態圈有望成功複製。接入小米 IoT 平台的設備超過 2.5 億台,擁有 5 件及以上設備的用户數達到 460 萬,同比增長 67.9%,已經 服務家庭數 5599 萬,市場份額至少超過 10%。智能場景每日執行次數 1.08 億次。

“小愛同學”的月活躍用户數達到 7050 萬,用户粘性業界領先。1Q20 小米電視連續 5 個季度出貨量位居中國內地市場第一,成功經驗有望複製。 我們預期 IoT 與生活消費產品的收入將保持 30%以上的增長。

互聯網服務業務保持增長喜人。隨着 5G 智能手機的銷售,IoT 周邊家電品 類的擴展,小愛同學及米家 APP 的滲透,將帶來更多新的流量變現渠道。 

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