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富瑞:內地第三季或減息 料內銀下半年利潤倒退
格隆匯 06-18 15:09

富瑞發表研究報告指,國務院表示,將推動金融機構全年向各類企業合理讓利1.5萬億元人民幣,表明今年內地的商業銀行的資產收益率將下跌40至60基點,並認為今年第三季有更高可能減息,同時亦有更大機會下半年的利潤將會減少,以及會減少股息。

富瑞表示,估計措施將令銀行的平均貸款收益率降低68基點,並將今年公司或地方政府特別債券的平均收益率降低100基點,亦會推遲中小企的還款,同時會令銀行手續費減少。

該行指,國務院的聲明將作為銀行定價的指引,認為貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調幅度逾50基點的可能性更大。儘管由於減息及延遲貸款的影響,銀行明年將承受更大壓力。不過,在經濟下行的情況下,銀行有理由在2020年預留充足的撥備。該行又指,將利潤增長率限制於10%以內,主要影響招商銀行(3968.HK)及其他利潤增長較快的銀行。

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