滔搏(06110.HK)：管理優秀的運動鞋服零售商，現金流穩健凸顯長期價值，給予“推薦”評級
機構：東興證券
評級：推薦
報告摘要：
滔搏是國內目前最大的運動服飾分銷商，回望過去，滔搏無疑是成功的，自1999年開展運動鞋服零售業務，至今成為全國最大運動鞋服零售商；2019年登陸資本市場市值在近期創新高。展望未來，滔搏作為渠道商與品牌商、作為線下零售商與電商都存在着博弈和競合，我們在本篇報告中重點討論這種競合關係。我們認為滔搏的核心資產在於廣闊的線下連鎖業務，核心競爭力在於採購、供應鏈和管理方面的能力，長期看仍有提升份額的空間和保持優秀自由現金流的經營表現。
採購端：依靠消費者行為分析和運營能力，與優質品牌深度合作。滔搏作為零售商能取得現在的成功，很大程度要歸功於運動鞋服這個品類：運動鞋服在服裝裏是一個相對高價、品牌集中度高、重消費體驗的品類，這個領域也成長出像滔搏和寶勝這樣規模體量較大的零售商。滔搏合作的運動品牌包括2個主力品牌+9個其他品牌，公司與品牌的關係、渠道開拓和消費者維繫是一個合格的零售商所必備的核心能力組成。
供應鏈：直營+下沉，規模效應已建立。滔搏的的直營門店是中國覆蓋範圍最廣的運動鞋服產品直營零售網絡。公司的零售銷售收入佔比為86.6%，門店穿透一二線及低線城市。作為零售商，滔搏發展定位始終是最大程度地發揮供應鏈的優勢，持續追求最大化銷售和最快化週轉。
管理：數字化是與電商渠道抗衡之刃。滔搏已經建立了科技賦能的系統化零售運營方案，其數字化的零售方案主要帶來了庫存管理和消費者管理兩方面的提升，最終實現提升店效和降低獲客成本。
牢固的上下游合作關係保證滔搏的營運資本可控且穩定，穩健的拓店進度使得公司的資本支出也穩定在7-10億之間，資本回報率持續在20%以上。公司優秀的自由現金流有助為長期持久戰做好充足準備，也是公司長期投資價值所在。盈利預測及投資建議：預計公司FY2021-FY2023實現營業收入364.30、432.89、484.62億元人民幣，歸母淨利潤分別為25.55、31.11、34.80億元，對應EPS分別為0.41、0.50、0.56元。首次覆蓋，給予推薦評級。
風險提示：疫情導致消費復甦不及預期；2、品牌商戰略變化。3、新渠道拓展受阻。
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