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中升控股(00881HK):品牌佈局優異,穿越週期確定性強,給予“推薦”評級
格隆匯 06-12 08:54

機構:東興證券

中升控股是中國領先的汽車經銷商集團,主營豪華品牌和中高端品牌。2019年公司新車銷量45.6萬台,同比增長11%,大幅跑贏整體車市。我們認為這得益於公司優秀的品牌結構和管理水平,而且長期看公司的優勢將繼續保持:

公司品牌集中度較高,利於與整車廠建立良好的溝通。

公司管理能力優秀,不負整車廠的信任,雙方合作進一步深化。

車市低迷階段,公司主營的豪華品牌和日系品牌的增長確定性更強。若疫情長期化,留學和出境遊等境外高端消費將受到抑制,豪車消費將實現增長。?據中國旅遊研究院測算,2017年出境遊人數達1.3億人次,相應費用為1152.9億美元。假設未來10%的出境遊居民將相關費用轉而購買豪車(以BBA的B級車型為例,中等配置的單價約30萬),每年將產生至少30萬輛的新增需求。

海外留學、遊學受抑制,富裕家庭相關開支或將轉為其他高端可選消費,豪車市場也將受推動。長期看,學生及家長重新評估海外留學的性價比和可行性,申請積極性減弱。

售後與精品業務穩定增長,增值業務成為新的利潤增長點。中升控股近3年的零服吸收率均在100%左右,高於同行,售後業務穩定。此外,公司近年增值業務的利潤規模穩步攀升。隨着汽車金融滲透率提升,公司作為頭部經銷商具有規模優勢。

公司盈利預測及投資評級:我們預計公司2020-2022年歸母淨利潤分別為47、55.7和63.4億元,對應EPS分別為2.07、2.45和2.79元。當前股價對應2020-2022年PE值分別為17.6、14.9和13倍。在整體車市低迷的情況下,豪華品牌的穩健增長和日系品牌的逆週期性都將為公司貢獻穩定增量。我們看好公司優秀的品牌結構和管理能力,首次覆蓋給予“推薦”評級。

風險提示:乘用車銷量不及預期;汽車消費刺激政策實施效果不及預期。

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