《大行報告》大摩料濠賭股短期迎催化劑 但疫情下「新常態」不利低端中場表現
摩根士丹利發表報告,相信澳門賭收已於今年4月見底(該月賭收僅2,500萬澳門元),指目前行業趨勢與2016年首季相似,濠賭股近期股價亦受到市場憧憬賭收走勢所推升,並相信內地一旦放鬆對澳門旅遊限制,消息將刺激濠賭股上升,因投資者預期濠賭股的賭收及盈利會得到改善。
但該行認為,新冠疫情之後,澳門博彩業會迎來「新常態」,相信中國及海外流動性改善將會推動澳門貴賓廳業務表現,惟料將不利於低端中場(Grind mass)業務表現,由於社交距離限制下每張賭檯最多只可有三名賭客,並料倚重低端中場的金沙中國(01928.HK)面對更大下行壓力。大摩在行業選股上喜愛高度參與貴賓廳/高端中場的本地賭股,多於金沙中國;並指金沙今年首季澳門的博彩市場份額,已由2019年的24%,降至今年首季的22%。
大摩表示,決定下調澳門今年博彩收入預測,由原來跌38%下修至跌55%,以反映內地與澳門之間的旅遊限制措施,料今年貴賓廳賭收將按年跌50%(原預期跌31%)、估計今年中場賭收將按年跌58%(原預期跌41%);該行上調澳門明年賭收增長預測,由原來按年升40%上修至90%,料明年貴賓廳賭收將按年升97%(原預期升28%)、料明年中場賭收將按年升85%(原預期升43%)。
該行同時調整對澳門博彩股的目標價,上調對銀河娛樂(00027.HK)目標價由50元升至53元,維持「與大市同步」評級;另升金沙中國目標價由33元升至35元,維持「與大市同步」評級。該行上調對美高梅中國(02282.HK)目標價由11元升至13元,維持「增持」評級。
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