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匯率變化有利於資金流入港股市場
格隆匯 06-08 11:36

機構:廣發證券

報告摘要:

本週全球股市普漲,港股恆生指數、恆生國企指數分別上漲7.88%、5.28%。板塊方面,恆生一級行業全部上漲,非必需消費業領漲,電訊業漲幅相對較小。

國內方面,中國5月製造業PMI為50.6,較前值小幅回落,其中訂單指標較上月回升,拖累數據的主要來自就業、庫存等供給端分項。本週央行推出普惠小微企業貸款延期支持工具與普惠小微企業信用貸款支持計劃兩項新政,旨在落實“寬信用”與對中小企業的信貸支持。海外方面,5月美歐製造業、非製造業PMI較前值回升,其中歐洲上行幅度更高。本週歐央行會議決定將緊急資產購買計劃規模提高6000億歐元,幅度超預期,歐洲經濟增長失速風險進一步降低。受經濟數據好轉,以及歐央行刺激增強市場對經濟復甦的預期等因素影響,市場風險偏好繼續上升,美元指數大幅下跌。

投資策略上,中美關係存在不確定性或壓制港股投資者情緒,但目前“美元降、人民幣穩、港元強”利於資金流入,短期對港股市場無需悲觀。中長線來看,港股中資股盈利低預期、極低估值的優勢,加上對債務風險的“免疫性”,使得未來市場即使出現波動,港股也存在一定獨立性。

行業配置層面,短期關注“高股息、稀缺性”主線:(1)對於長期資金而言,港股高股息是一個極佳的配置方向(銀行、地產);(2)中概股迴歸預期下,港股優質“稀缺資產”(互聯網軟件)是重點配置方向。但前期強勢的疫情“低敏感”板塊,如醫療設備、半導體等,短期內或面臨一定風險。

關注個股:結合廣發海外行業各研究團隊的觀點,建議關注:銀河娛樂(00027HK)、碧桂園服務(06098HK)、金斯瑞生物科技(01548HK)、中升控股(00881HK)、小米集團-W(01810HK)、騰訊控股(00700HK)。

核心假設風險:美元指數、美債收益率大幅上行的風險;國內信用政策持續收緊的風險;中美貿易形勢進一步惡化風險。

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