野村料內房全年盈利或跌5-10% 樓價升勢將收窄
野村中國房地產首席分析師張正宇出席網上論壇時指出,預期內地房地產市場短期政策將穩定,而下半年或將有所放寬,在信貸層面現時已見到開發商及按揭的融資成本有所降低,而在開發貸及按揭額度方面亦有所放寬。他料內地樓價上半年將升5%左右,但到年底升勢將收窄至按年持平,主要因為去化率較低,加上估計下半年開發商將面對較大壓力。
他指出今年供應將較多聚集在下半年,現時新屋銷售已逐步復甦,雖然去化率已復甦至65%左右,但仍處於低位,而行業庫存正在上升,特別是一些非核心地區等,料將為開發商帶來更大壓力。在土地市場方面,他認為復甦步伐較樓市快,料將為開發商的利潤帶來壓力,料上半年內房開發商盈利可錄中、單位數增長,惟全年計盈利或呈5-10%的跌勢,現時該行對行業看法中性,將留意下半年政策是否有正面訊號。
而在內地物管行業方面,他認為短期傾向選擇物管多於開發商,認為行業有較高的盈利可見性,認為可留意行業在非住宅物業方面的擴張,以及增值服務滲透率提升的情況。此外他認為今年物管行業亦會有更多併購活動,而下半年估計合景泰富(01813.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、 世茂房地產(00813.HK)等或分拆旗下物管業務在港上市,亦會繼續吸引市場對行業的注意。
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