国泰君安:阿里巴巴(009988.HK)目标价上望255元 可受惠在线购物渗透
国泰君安发表报告表示,新冠疫情爆发期间,在线购物进一步渗透,予阿里巴巴(009988.HK)「买入」投资评级及目标价255元,相当2021年度非通用会计准则预测市盈率32.1倍,指公司在新冠疫情爆发的阻力下取得了超预期业绩,并认为新冠疫情可能成为用户行为和业务运营进一步发展的催化剂,从而导致对互联网服务的巨大需求,而该行指阿里巴巴管理层订下於2021财年收入可达6,500亿元人民币、总商品交易额1万亿元人民币目标。
该行指,阿里巴巴的2020财年第四季度业绩超出了该行的预期,公司在内地零售业务於2020财年第四季度实现了乐观的收入,表明新冠疫情的负面影响已逐渐消失。
国泰君安表示,由於在线服务需求的增长,云业务仍保持了快速增长。而阿里由於持续的投资,该行预计公司的毛利率将在2021财年至2023财年面临压力,但该行预计阿里的总运营费用比率将在未来三年保持稳定。由於再投资策略,该行指阿里盈利的增长速度可能慢於收入增长,但有望保持健康增长。
该行估计,阿里巴巴於2021财年至2023财年每股盈利预测各为6.083、7.201及8.355元人民币,按年分别下跌14.4%、上升18.4%及上升16%。
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