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植耀輝: 港股6月不絕 惟波動難免
阿思達克 06-03 11:28
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,五窮月過後,港股在6月開局稍令投資者鬆一口氣,至少在眾多不明朗因素下,恆指在過去兩個交易日仍能累升4.5%。根據過去十年數據,如恆指5月錄得超過5%以上跌幅,6月均可出現反彈,只是以港股近期投資氣氛而言實在相當「麻麻」,加上政治市「無得估」,所以投資者入市亦要要加倍小心。事實上,周初已有消息指中國已暫停進口美國大豆,爆發全面貿易戰的機率提升不少,即使北水錄得淨買入,但要「撐起港股」恐怕有一定難度,且看港股未來一周能否持續反彈矣!

眾所周知,筆者一直看淡內地汽車股前景,原因是與需求轉弱以及行業競爭加劇有關;不過近期吉利(00175.HK)配股消息,則提起筆者對相關板塊的興趣。當然,吉利選擇在股價如此低殘下仍進行配股,是否單純資金需要值得再深思,但對汽車板塊下半年表現,則筆者有所改觀,當中關鍵還是內地政策扶持。作為內地重要產業支柱之一,在穩增長大前題,以及去年下半年基數較低的情況下,今年下半年業務發展料有一定改善。加上不少車股股價仍相當低殘,故有一定值博率。至於吉利是否值得「撈底」,日後會再作詳細剖析。

提到車股,亦值得談談當今車市最炙手可熱之Tesla。股價年初至今仍勁升近一倍,市值更已大幅拋離福特及通用汽車。究竟有什麼因素令其股價長升長有?最大原因,可能是與其生產規模持續增加有關。Tesla今年第一季產量10.3萬輛,已交付數目為8.84萬輛,為集團有史以來表現最好的一季度。當中,內地發展成為最大亮點,而3月銷量達到10,160輛,佔全中國電動車銷量近三分之一,難得在疫情之下仍能有如此表現,難怪有分析員樂觀預期,Tesla全年產量,將有望達到創辦人Elon Musk所訂下50萬輛之目標。

另一個原因,則可能與其「身份」有關。雖然Tesla現時市值超過1,500億美元,但原來迄今仍未被納入標普500指數成份股中。要成為標普500指數一員,除了市值及成交活躍度外,亦要有一定盈利能力,就是連續四個季度取得盈利。Tesla過去三個季度已能成為虧轉盈,所以如今年第二季度仍能取得盈利,即意味將有機會被納入標普500指數成份股。由於不少美國投資者捨難取易,傾向買入ETF作部署,故未來有機會在被動式買盤支持下,對Tesla股價又會帶來另一種利好。當然,最關鍵還是Tesla未來是否能繼續鞏固其電動車一哥地位之餘,盈利能否進一步得到保證及提升。

(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)~

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