滔搏(06110.HK)：穩健的業績彰顯格局與效率優勢，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
業績穩中有升，現金流大幅改善
實現收入 336.9 億元，+3.5%（1H/2H 為+12.4%/-4.2%） ；歸母淨利潤23.0 億元，+4.7%（1H/2H 為+21.2%/-15.5%） ，扣非後淨利潤 23.8億，+6.5%（1H/2H 為+25.1%/-16.1%） 。而疫情前 11 個月，收入增長>13%，OP增長>20%，略高於 1H。毛利率 42.1%，+0.3 pp；經營利潤率 9.8%，-0.1 pp.，淨利率 6.8%，+0.1 pp.，扣非後淨利率 7.1%，+0.2pp。隨槓桿下降，存貨/應收/應付賬款週期分別為 120/22/16 天，同比+16/-7/+6 天，高效穩健。經營性現金流淨額 64.5 億，+104%。
主力品牌保持穩健增長，大店策略下坪效仍有提升
零售/批發/聯營+電競收入分別同比+0.7%/+25.8%/+26.9%。主力品牌Nike Adidas 和其他品牌分別同比+4.4%/-4.2%，其中主力品牌 1H/2H為+10.7%/-1.4%，其他品牌為+27.5/-22.9%。店鋪數量淨增加 0.6%，而店鋪面積+10.6%，大店比例顯著提升。我們測算，FY20 店效約 348萬元/年，+0.1%，坪效約 2.1 萬元/年，-8.5%，而除去疫情影響後，店效約 391 萬元/年，+12.4%，坪效約 2.4 萬元，+2.7%。
疫情加速數字化進程，預計下半年恢復正常增長
數字化包括：1）打通庫存共享；2）擴大 O2O店鋪從 30%到 85%；3）擴大移動收銀，從在個別增加到 90%店鋪。數字化銷售佔比從疫情前中高單位數提升至疫情高峯期 40-50%，疫情緩和後穩定在 10-20%，會員銷售貢獻比例大幅提升。今年 3-5 月折扣將對公司業績產生負面但可控的影響，下半年有望恢復 10%以上正常增長。
風險提示
1.疫情反覆，經濟大幅下行；2.渠道改革不及預期；3.系統性風險。
投資建議：業績韌性已驗證，有望提升市場認知
根據 20 財年業績與展望，我們預計公司 21-23 財年淨利潤分別同增22.0%/18.4%/15.1%，當前股價對應 PE 為 20.7x/17.4x/15.2x，上調合理估值為 12-12.5 港元，對應 FY22 PE20-21x，維持“買入”評級。
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