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新東方在線(01797.HK):大班疫情期間免費課發放超千萬,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 05-25 09:14

機構:廣發證券

評級:買入

核心觀點:

K12 大班業務:疫情期間免費課發放突破千萬,師資團隊持續儲備,有望暑秋課程中釋放產能。新東方在線大班業務春季通過免費正價課的方式推廣, 根據官網數據, 截止目前發放份數已經達到近 2000 萬份教師儲備方面,主講教師數在 200 人左右。今年以來的投放以及人員儲備帶來短期的成本費用增加。除了教師團隊的儲備之外,公司也增加了客服和銷售人員的儲備,在大班的銷售獲客上也在不斷探索新模式。考慮疫情影響,我們預計大班在今年春天貢獻的營收有限,但提前儲備的生源流量以及師資有望在暑秋課程中釋放效應。

東方優播: 當前已經超額完成 2020財年佈局規劃, 迅速佔領線下獲客入口。東方優播業務來看,受疫情影響有限。體驗店佈局推進、師資儲備等按照原有計劃開展。目前開展完成度超先前預期,體驗店進入的城市數已經達到 150+, 先前規劃 2020 財年淨增80-100家,目前已經超額完成。主講教師儲備來看,我們認為目前儲備的主講教師人數能夠滿足暑期招生計劃。東方優播業務有序推進。

大學業務:受國內外疫情影響,出國考試培訓以及學生本身的出國計劃都有所影響,2020 財年來看,受產品線調整以及疫情綜合影響,增速預計有一定下滑。長期來看,大學業務仍能穩定貢獻淨利。

投資建議:考慮疫情對於公司業績的影響,我們調整對公司的盈利預測,預計公司20-22 財年分別實現歸母淨利-8.07/-5.11/-4.26億元。綜合考慮絕對估值及相對估值,我們認為公司合理價值為 37.36 港元/股維持“買入”評級。

風險提示:K12大班業務行業競爭加劇;在線教育監管趨嚴。

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