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新東方在線(01797.HK):深度跟蹤報告:風起於青萍之末,維持“增持”評級,目標價39.00港元
格隆匯 05-13 13:14

機構:中信證券

評級:增持

目標價:39.00港元

核心觀點

目前新東方在線最核心的看點在於 K12 雙師大班的加速發展以及東方優播的持續穩健兑現。疫情之下大量用户接受了一場完整的線上學習習慣培養,在線教育行業真正實現了一次跨越式發展。2021 財年新東方在線 K12 雙師大班勢必開啟一輪提速發展,但同時也要看到其與頭部玩家間的差距仍需時間迭代。公司持續的積極變化是我們認為假以時日其終將兑現稟賦的重要原因。

春季週末免費課,以小博大。新東方在線 K12 雙師大班是疫情期間唯一推出春季全程週末免費課的機構,犧牲整個春季收入來換取用户積累。自 1 月底推出免費課程至 3 月中旬,新東方在線中小學 APP 在教育類應用中排名自 600 以外直接躍升至前 50,與行業第一梯隊接近。公司免費課報名人次超千萬量級,即使按最保守的 10%到課率、5%正價轉化率計算,亦將為其後續單季帶來 10 萬正價課人次,預計拉動 2021財年 K12 雙師大班業務實現 3 倍以上增長。

三人行必有我師,不斷迭代。近一年新東方在線在內容、服務、產品三個競爭維度對頭部機構的追趕清晰可見。內容上課程細分化設置開始落實,數學課程細分出四級難度三個版本,2020 年暑期在售課程達 1,677 個。服務上 K12 雙師大班學管人數由 2020財年中期的 1000 餘人增長至 2000 餘人,微信羣運營更加精細化,同時開始注重微信流量池積累以此豐富更低成本的獲客渠道。產品上自研直播系統全面啟用,後台數據更加詳實直觀、技術迭代更加匹配可控。

一年之計在於夏,開始搶跑。暑期是教培機構重要的招生窗口期,2020 年的暑期尤為特別。受疫情影響線下教培機構全面復課時間尚不明確,即使復課,預計家長出於保險起見短期仍會迴避孩子參加線下補習。而在線教培機構則於 4月率先開啟暑期招生,甚至設置暑秋連報進一步鎖住生源。新東方在線 K12 雙師大班一改以往“3+6”暑期招生打法,更加聚焦小一、初一、高一三個入口年級發力, 正價課程定價 25~33 元/課時未見明顯上漲,藉此進一步夯實學生基數。

東方優播模型跑通,加速發展。2020財年預計東方優播合計新開校區約 115個,遠快於 2019 財年新開 39 個校區的拓展速度。目前進駐的 148 個城市中三線及以下城市佔比 75.4%,未來仍有至少一倍的城市拓展空間。東方優播門店選址主要集中於當地學校聚集區域, 各校區 5 公里以內學校數在 20 所以上的佔比 96%。未來在開校和爬坡的雙重作用下,預計 2020 財年和 2021 財年東方優播均有望保持 200%左右的收入增長,不斷積累在低線城市的競爭壁壘。

風險因素:在線教育監管趨嚴,獲客成本上升,K-12業務發展不達預期。

看好長期,維持“增持”評級。疫情期間免費課程帶來的龐大用户積累、過去一年公司持續的優化迭代、一直以來背靠新東方的資源優勢是我們認為公司假以時日終將兑現稟賦的重要原因。受公司加大師資儲備以及疫情期間加大營銷投放力度影響,預計 2020財年虧損將明顯擴大,2021財年收入有望實現快速增長、虧損同比收窄,調整 20~22 財年 EPS 預測至-0.60/-0.30 /-0.21 元(原為-0.06/-0.19/-0.26 元),維持 “增持”評級。

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