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騰訊控股(00700.HK):20Q1業績前瞻及後續展望,維持"買入"評級
格隆匯 05-13 13:52

機構:廣發證券

評級:買入

核心觀點:

我們從美股科技股 20Q1 財報看,儘管有疫情影響,幾家科技巨頭財報後股價均出現上漲,整體疫情影響有限,短期可能收入端會有些影響,不過疫情加速企業線上化,中長期看對互聯網公司是機會。

對騰訊財報,短期關注金融科技、遊戲、廣告的預期差,中期看金融科技和廣告盈利提升,長期看 2B業務。金融科技:因支付佔金融科技收入比重較高,利潤佔比相對不高,疫情對 Q1 支付(尤其是線下支付)交易額有一定負面影響,微粒貸、理財產品在 Q1整體增長比較好。遊戲:高遞延收入+疫情刺激需求增長,市場對 Q1 預期比較好,後續增長驅動來自儲備的頭部手遊+海外增長,我們預計20Q1 手遊收入同比增長 38.8%。 《地下城與勇士》手遊截至5 月10 日國內預約量近 3,500萬(來自官網),預計上線後將對手遊帶來很大增量。廣告:目前市場預期不高,值得注意的是社交廣告收入增長帶來的毛利率增長,激發廣告對利潤的貢獻提升。從需求和增長方向看,廣告主更加側重廣告效果和轉化,而騰訊今年重點強化的商業生態(實現交易閉環)、線下商家數字化(藉助互聯網為線下引流),也將正向促進廣告銷售。雲業務及企業服務 Q1 雖有影響,我們更多關注長期增長,疫情將加速企業上雲。小程序、騰訊會議、企業微信是騰訊2B 業務比較大的亮點,用户數和活躍度快速增長。

維持“買入”評級。預計 20~21 年 NonGAAP 歸母淨利為人民幣 1,133億、1,400 億元,當前股價對應 20~21年PE為32倍、26倍。遊戲增長強勁,金融科技盈利繼續提升,微信商業生態提速,疫情加速企業數字化、在線化,騰訊 to B能力逐漸被驗證,打開中長期增長空間。基於分部估值方法,得到合理價值 503 港元/股。

風險提示: 疫情短期影響支付和廣告增長;新遊版號發放和流水不達預期;微信商業生態進展不及預期;支付和雲行業競爭致費用提升。

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