騰訊控股(00700.HK)：20Q1業績前瞻及後續展望，維持"買入"評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
我們從美股科技股 20Q1 財報看，儘管有疫情影響，幾家科技巨頭財報後股價均出現上漲，整體疫情影響有限，短期可能收入端會有些影響，不過疫情加速企業線上化，中長期看對互聯網公司是機會。
對騰訊財報，短期關注金融科技、遊戲、廣告的預期差，中期看金融科技和廣告盈利提升，長期看 2B業務。金融科技：因支付佔金融科技收入比重較高，利潤佔比相對不高，疫情對 Q1 支付（尤其是線下支付）交易額有一定負面影響，微粒貸、理財產品在 Q1整體增長比較好。遊戲：高遞延收入+疫情刺激需求增長，市場對 Q1 預期比較好，後續增長驅動來自儲備的頭部手遊+海外增長，我們預計20Q1 手遊收入同比增長 38.8%。 《地下城與勇士》手遊截至5 月10 日國內預約量近 3,500萬(來自官網)，預計上線後將對手遊帶來很大增量。廣告：目前市場預期不高，值得注意的是社交廣告收入增長帶來的毛利率增長，激發廣告對利潤的貢獻提升。從需求和增長方向看，廣告主更加側重廣告效果和轉化，而騰訊今年重點強化的商業生態（實現交易閉環）、線下商家數字化（藉助互聯網為線下引流），也將正向促進廣告銷售。雲業務及企業服務 Q1 雖有影響，我們更多關注長期增長，疫情將加速企業上雲。小程序、騰訊會議、企業微信是騰訊2B 業務比較大的亮點，用户數和活躍度快速增長。
維持“買入”評級。預計 20~21 年 NonGAAP 歸母淨利為人民幣 1,133億、1,400 億元，當前股價對應 20~21年PE為32倍、26倍。遊戲增長強勁，金融科技盈利繼續提升，微信商業生態提速，疫情加速企業數字化、在線化，騰訊 to B能力逐漸被驗證，打開中長期增長空間。基於分部估值方法，得到合理價值 503 港元/股。
風險提示： 疫情短期影響支付和廣告增長；新遊版號發放和流水不達預期；微信商業生態進展不及預期；支付和雲行業競爭致費用提升。
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