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植耀輝: 美疫情仍嚴峻 重啟經濟須審慎
阿思達克 05-13 10:58
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,過去周末不少記者朋友打來問他一個問題:「美股其實升乜?」除了憧憬當地經濟活動重啟以及流動性充裕外,亦想不到其他更合理的原因。不過,筆者倒沒有忘記德國股神科斯托蘭尼其中一句名言:「入市需要幻想,沽貨需要理性現實。」投資者現時炒作歐美等地有望逐步恢復經濟活動,憧憬最壞時間過去。不過,面對當前疫情,誰也說不準會否出現第二波爆發,而新興市場如印度、巴西及俄羅斯等疫情依然肆虐。而更重要問題在於,在疫情與經濟之間,究竟哪一項較重要?

美國總統特朗普顯然是後者。為爭取成功連任,他不惜豪賭一鋪,以盡快恢復經濟為大前題,無視當地疫情擴散。然而在白宮職員也接連中招下,提早復工的代價可能就是更多人受感染兼送命,到時疫情失控加上百業蕭條,特朗普焉有不敗之理?可以預期特朗普為分散注意力,肯定會有更多「小動作」,當中便包括中美貿易衝突。所以,雖則美股近日走勢頗強,但若見勢色不對,便要面對現實狠心沽貨。

而且即使復工,但企業成本不輕之餘,未來可能有更多企業「捱唔住」。截至4月為止,被評級機構穆迪((Moody)評為「B3負面展望」以下之企業數目,已大幅增加至311間,較2009年金融海嘯爆發時高峰291間還多;而在「非投資等級」企業中,「B3負面展望」以下企業的比率更攀升至26.1%(平均值為14.8%),顯示在肺炎疫情衝擊以及油價大跌下,企業信用風險大幅上升。另外,標普(S&P)及穆迪今年第一季下調和上調評級之比例為3:1,為金融危機以來最大差距。種種跡象均顯示,即使疫情過後,投資者仍可能會寢食難安。當然各國已肯定會拋出更多援助措施以企業加就業,但金融市場震盪仍難以預料。

另外,今日(13日)焦點肯定是股王騰訊(00700.HK)。股價近期相當強勢,其一是對季績有憧憬,其次是有傳京東將於本月下旬在港作第二上市,以及第三,受納指大型科網股走勢理想所帶動。不過股價急升至此,現時估值亦已變得不太吸引,雖說遊戲收入增長仍強勁,但網絡廣告收入似乎面對相當多不確定性,所以即使是筆者愛股,但亦不敢建議大家追貨矣!

(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)~

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