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《大行報告》摩通:內地4月信貸增長超預期 大型內銀首選招行和建行
阿思達克 05-12 15:45
摩根大通發表研究報告,指從4月份的信貸增長超出預期。該行從相關數據及首季的貨幣政策報告中得出結論,認為貨幣政策對改善短期增長有效。首先,4月份的信貸增長自3月份水平有所加快,新增的信貸主要是配置至長期或中期貸款。第二,首季的普惠金融資款按年增長23.6%,增速超過整體貸款增長,紓緩了對微企信貸緊縮的憂慮。第三,一般貸款的有效貸款利率按季下跌26個基點。與第四季相比,首季價格高於LPR利率的新貸款比例下降,意味下調LPR的流通率不斷提高,減輕借款人的還本付息負擔。另一方面,雖然借貸利率下跌,加上結構性存款有所反彈,但由於負債成本管理,上市銀行的淨息差在首季大致保持穩定。

雖然這些事件紓緩近期資產質素風險,但在長期而言存在債務問題的憂慮。因為該行在人民銀行的調查中注意到在首季疲弱的商業氣氛及銷售收入下,貸款批准率有上升。數據雖支持該行認為內地銀行的資產質素及盈利能力會在今年維持穩定,但擔心債務問題會在長遠而言限制銀行在未來重估的上行空間。在大型銀行中,首選招商銀行(03968.HK)及建設銀行(00939.HK)。

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