《季績前瞻》券商料騰訊(00700.HK)首季非通用會計準則多賺22% 受惠手遊強勁 關注商業端復甦
騰訊(00700.HK)將於下周三(13日)公布截今年首季度業績，新冠疫情雖衝擊了旗下媒體廣告、商業支付等互聯網金融業務、關停網吧影響其個人電腦遊戲業務表現，但在「宅」在家效應下，相信手遊業務特別是《和平精英》2至3月流水強勁已可比肩《王者榮耀》、效果類社交廣告超預期等所帶動下，本網綜合15間券商預測，料騰訊今年首季非通用會計準則純利介乎199.07億至276.69億元人民幣，較2019年首季純利209.3億人民幣，按年減少4.9%至增長32.2%，中位數為255.6億元人民幣，按年增長22.1%。
綜合9間券商預測，騰訊今年首季純利料介乎210.76億至265.69億元人民幣，較2019年首季272.1億人民幣，按年下跌2.4%至22.5%，中位數為232.13億元人民幣，按年跌14.7%。由於疫情衝擊全球金融市場，券商估計騰訊受今年首季旗下其他收益淨額(若干投資於金融服務、網絡遊戲及教育等垂直領域的業務估值變動所產生的公允價值收益)預測，會由去年首季111.1億人民幣大幅縮減至逾10億至30億人民幣所影響，從而影響其今年首季純利呈倒退。
【料手遊強勁 抵廣告影響】
綜合15間券商預測，騰訊今年首季收入料介乎974.92億至1,052億元人民幣，較2019年首季收入854.65億人民幣按年增長14.1%至23.1%，中位數為1,025.69億元人民幣，按年增長20%。市場將關注騰訊管理層給予最新指引，包括網遊業務增長趨勢、關注媒體廣告收入會受宏觀環境所影響，因部份刻集上線延期及NBA相關活動轉播減少等影響，但會意社交廣告增長情況，因自2月中起微信「朋友圈」人均單日最高廣告爆光量已增至4條，並留意商業端業務推展進度等。
摩根士丹利預測，騰訊首季純利235.87億元人民幣按年減少13.3%，料非國際財務報告準則純利230.38億元按年升10.1%，收入按年升18.7%至1,014.78億元，料其增值業務收入按年升21%至592.79億人民幣，其中網遊收入可按年升21%至345.21億元，估計線上廣告業務收入升15%至153.54億人民幣，料其中媒體廣告收入跌20%至27.83億人民幣，料社交及其他廣告收入27%至125.7億人民幣。
瑞信預測，騰訊首季純利210.76億元按年減少22.5%，非通用會計準則純利255.59億元按年升22.1%，估計收入按年升20%至1,025.69億元。該行料，移動遊戲及社交廣告將繼續成騰首季業績主要動力，受惠遊戲流量及參與率，預期首季手遊業務收入升46%，主要由《和平精英》及《王者榮耀》推動，料社交廣告收入則按年升28%。金融科技及其他收入增長將放緩至22%，受網上支付金額減少及雲項目因疫情延後所影響。該行關注騰訊對疫後廣告及支付業務的展望，與及未來推出的遊戲。
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本網綜合15間券商預測，料騰訊今年首季非通用會計準則純利介乎199.07億至276.69億元人民幣，較2019年首季純利209.3億人民幣，按年減少4.9%至增長32.2%，中位數為255.6億元人民幣，按年增長22.1%。
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