植耀輝: 貿易戰再開打 投資市場震盪難免
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，還記得一年前的5月初，筆者出席了一個近千人之投資講座，當時中美雙方已打算簽訂貿易協議，與會嘉賓對市場看法亦普遍正面，筆者雖然是「淡友底」，但當時亦不得不向現實低頭。然而當晚特朗普便宣布將於5月10日向中國加徵關稅，殺市場一個措手不及。誰料到一年之後，特朗普會「照辦煮碗」，再次威脅向中國加徵關稅?當然今次背景較上次更為複雜，姑勿論病毒從何而來，但歐美等地處理疫情確是相當不濟，迄今仍未見受控。在歷來未有一位總統可在經濟衰退時連任的背景下，特朗普要「創造歷史」，肯定會將矛頭指向中國。可以預期，去年受消息而出現大上大落之波動市況將再度重現，加上疫情拖累，恐怕投資者只會「有得震，無得訓」矣!
當然本周亦要留意美國就業數據，根據《彭博通訊社》預測，美國4月非農職位將破記錄減少2,130萬人，失業率亦會暴升至16%。雖然是短期現象，但未來要新增以千萬計就業職位恐怕十分困難。所以未來數天要更加留意美股表現。
提到美股，則不可不提亞馬遜(Amazon)。這家電商巨擘上周公布了一份好壞參半之季績。一如市場預期，疫情令亞馬遜電商業務、廣告業務及雲計算業務AWS需求急增，營業額增幅亦優於市場預期，上升26%至755億美元創歷史新高；不過，由於要為員工提供病毒檢測、採購個人防護裝備以及廠房清潔升級，另外為了應付龐大網購訂單需求，需要增聘17.5萬人兼上調時薪，令營業支出增幅達到29%，最終淨利潤反而倒退近三成!該公司更預期，由於上述因素，本季支出將進一步暴增40億美元，最壞情況更有機會令第二季業績「見紅」。這跟大部分分析指疫情有利網購的觀點有所出入。
筆者一向亦有網購習慣，過去半年訂購次數亦明顯增加(每月「找卡數」時便知訂購次數有多令自己驚訝)，但同時亦不斷思考在疫情下物流運輸會有多麻煩，回想年初訂物資時不斷被「CUT單」便已明白當前情況。所以筆者相信，亞馬遜的境況肯定非個別例子，亦是很多大型網購企業面對之一大難題。
這或亦可解釋到為何阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股價近期如此弱勢。事實上兩者業務均涉及物流倉儲運輸，阿里巴巴亦早已預告今年首季業績表現將受疫情影響，同樣經營成本將成為投資者最大關注點。當然，軟銀一日未正式減持，對其股價亦肯定帶來心理影響。當然，以中長線而言阿里巴巴現價依然相當吸引，只是短期似乎下調壓力仍存在下，不妨再耐心並分階段買入會更理想。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，持有亞馬遜及阿里巴巴股份)~
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