宏利资管：油价急跌对中国有利
宏利投资管理定息产品高级组合经理陈佩珊表示，新型肺炎病毒大流行对中国经济的影响将集中於外部需求方面。中国出口业所承受的下行压力，应类似2018年至2019年中美贸易战期间所经历的情况。中国亦可能加推货币和财政措施，以推动经济复苏。她又指，油价急跌整体上对中国有利，因中国的石油需求约70%依赖进口，因此石油回落将利好其经常账和外汇储备。能源价格下跌亦应可减轻通胀压力，让当地有更多放宽货币政策的空间。
在落实政府的财政刺激政策方面，中国国有企业及地方政府融资平台应继续担当重要角色，但与2015年的上一个周期相比，它们的发挥空间显着减少，由於地方政府的债务水平普遍上升，预料新注入的流动资金将主要流向优质国有企业和地方政府融资平台。评级较低的国有企业或地方政府融资平台及民营企业或面对更沉重的流动资金压力，违约率或会因而上升。
房地产业方面，疫情爆发导致营运中断，亦对发展商造成负面影响，来自房地产销售的现金流减少，将引发再融资风险。至今政府已放宽当地限售令，并提供充足的在岸流动性，以支持房地产业。惟若房地产销售仍然呆滞，融资渠道有限及到期债务沉重的小型发展商，将容易受到影响。
她指，自疫情爆发以来，私人发展商的违约数目不断上升，主要发展商大部份拥有充裕的流动资金，能够在未来十二个月偿还债务，因此占有优势可克服目前经济低迷时期。其研究覆盖的发展商虽然正恢复销售和建造活动，但房地产需求仍然疲软，因此预计有关活动不会出现V形反弹。目前形势将加快市场整合，可能面对资金紧绌的小型发展商，将会被领先的发展商和国有企业夺去市场份额。
中国银行业在实质经济转弱的情况下，很可能面对资产质素压力，同时保险和证券公司或会受资本市场表现逊色影响。尽管如此，中国最大型银行的资产质素及资本流足比率处於多年来高位，因此仍稳占优势。此外有关银行向地方政府融资平台及受产能过剩困扰的行业贷款不多。与其他主要经济体相比，中国金融体系应相对稳健，尤其是中国金融体系已在2017至2019年期间经历去杠杆过程，而且内地股市至今抵御危机的能力胜於其他地区。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
