天立教育（01773.HK）：近期簽約楚雄、開陽項目，持續推進異地擴張，維持買入評級
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
近期簽約楚雄、開陽項目，持續推進異地擴張。
近期據天立教育公眾號，公司與貴州省貴陽市開陽縣縣政府正式簽約開陽天立學校；與雲南楚雄州政府正式簽約楚雄天立學校。
其中，開陽學校系繼落子遵義、銅仁後，天立於貴州第三所學校，開陽天立學校佔地150畝，是一所涵蓋集小學、初中、高中一體化的高品質精英學校；楚雄學校為天立在雲南省除彝良、保山外的第三所學校，集小學、初中、高中一體化的高品質精英學。
算上近期簽約的兩家，目前天立儲備學校包括：山東日照、東營、甘肅劍閣、貴州銅仁、江西宜春、四川瀘州、成都、安徽來安、甘肅蘭州、雲南楚雄、貴州開陽合計11所自建自營學校及瀘縣一所託管學校。
天立持續快速開校，且目前多為跨省項目，我們認為一方面是對天立辦學品質、辦學經驗的充分認可，天立經過20餘年辦學沉澱總結出一套成熟可複製的管理經驗，且成績得到有效檢驗；另一方面反映全國三四線城市旺盛的優質教育資源需求，我國一二線與三四線教育供給能力差異較大，優質師資條件大多集中在發達城市，三四線呈現較為明顯的供給窪地，但需求並未變弱，家長學生需求反而更加迫切，地方政府也積極主動引入優質資源。天立順應市場需求，通過自身積累快速擴張成長。
維持盈利預測，給予買入評級。
天立憑藉自身辦學經驗有效豐富當地教育供給，藉助民辦特有靈活優勢提高運營效率；另一方面將有效減輕地方財政壓力，全國多數地方政府大都對民辦教育採取積極歡迎態度。我們始終堅定看好天立模式，認可其對優質教育資源經驗的異地輸出與複製。目前政策尚未最終落地，但因地制宜引導優質民辦教育發展或是長期方向，建議積極關注。天立目前處於快速成長階段，更需關注收入及在校生增長，伴隨學校成熟業績將逐步釋放預計天立FY20-21年淨利分別為3.9億、5.3億，對應PE分別為16xPE、11xPE。
風險提示：新開校招生不及預期，核心高管流失，開校進度低於預期
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