恆安國際（01044.HK）2019 年年報點評 ：傳統渠道變革成效日漸顯現，電商銷售增長強勁，維持“增持”評級
機構：國泰君安證券
評級：增持
本報告導讀：
公司衞生巾業務傳統渠道改革成效顯現，電商銷售增長強勁，木漿價格低位和高毛利產品推廣力度加大有效提升毛利率，恆安特色阿米巴變革將持續改善公司業績。
摘要：
維持增持評級。考慮阿米巴平台化小團隊經營戰略持續助力公司變革，衞生巾業務銷售逐漸回暖，電商、母嬰等新渠道建設不斷增強，公共衞生事件促進濕巾、成人紙尿褲等產品銷售增長，全年推廣費用開支將得到更優控制，有望帶動公司業績修復，上調 2020~2022 年 EPS 至 3.62/3.98（+0.03） /4.29 元人民幣，當前市值對應 2020 年 PE 約為 18 倍，維持增持評級。
紙巾業務銷售增長，業績符合預期。受益於紙巾業務銷售快速增長和其他業務收益帶動，公司 2019 年全年實現營收 224.93 億元人民幣，同增 9.6%， 木漿價格回落緩解紙巾業務成本壓力，綜合毛利率提升 0.4pct 至38.6%。公司加大高檔及新產品推出品牌宣傳力度，推廣及分銷成本及行政費用同比上升約 29.4%，實現歸母淨利潤約 39.08 億元人民幣，同增 2.84%。
衞生巾業務傳統渠道改革成效顯現，電商銷售增長強勁。分業務來看，公司衞生巾業務加大傳統銷售渠道改革，持續推出升級和高檔產品，優化措施成效於下半年日漸顯現，帶動銷售回暖，全年銷售跌幅由上半年的 4.6% 收窄為 1.6%，同時受益於石化原料成本下降，衞生巾業務毛利率同比提升 0.9pct 至 70.3%。公司紙巾產品營收同增 12.3%，符合預期，電商銷售增長強勁，受益於木漿成本回落，毛利率同比提升 5.2pct 至 27.7%。公司持續 加強紙尿褲電商銷售佈局，高檔產品滲透率提升，將紙尿褲業務銷售跌幅由 2018 年的 14.4%有效收窄至 6.3%。公司電商渠道營業額超過44 億元人民幣，同比提升超 50%，佔整體銷售額貢獻同比提升 5.4pct 至 19.8%。
產品創新管理變革雙管齊下，衞生用品龍頭再期輝煌。公司持續優化平台化小團隊經營模式即恆安特色的阿米巴，制定更適合各地域性市場的銷售策略和調整產品組合，以提升銷售和營運效率，加強整體靈活性和市場反應能力。公司加大力度改革銷售渠道，加強和鞏固終端門店建設拓展，增強精準銷售能力，藉此提升產品滲透率及市場份額，目前木漿價格低位， 公司將繼續優化產品組合，聚焦高毛利產品，毛利率有望持續改善。
風險提示：宏觀經濟波動，原材料價格波動，行業競爭加劇，匯率風險
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
