大家樂集團(00341.HK):香港餐飲行業正經歷前所未有的困難,但大家樂會挺到最後,維持“收集”評級,目標價18.20港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:收集
目標價:18.20港元
香港餐飲業在2020年第1季度受到新冠疫情帶來的重創。2019下半年,香港的示威活動嚴重影響了餐飲業。儘管示威活動已在2020年第1季度有所緩和,但剛剛恢復的香港餐飲業又因新冠疫情的流行再受嚴重破壞。疫情將持續損害香港餐飲行業。與其他餐飲業態相比,快餐連鎖業態受的影響較小,但外部環境的不斷變化將不可避免地帶來挑戰。
大陸餐飲正在緩慢復甦。餐飲行業遭受新冠疫情重創,行業料將加快重新洗牌。隨着中國有效地管控了新冠疫情的蔓延,中國的餐飲行業正在逐漸復甦。但是在大部分的餐廳翻枱率仍然較低,因為輸入性案例的影響使消費者仍然謹慎外出。因為深圳和廣州上班族保持了對於快餐強勁的需求,大家樂收入有所復甦。
因為更差的盈利預測,我們下調目標價至18.20港元。但因為健康的財務狀況、忠誠的消費者基礎和與房東較強的議價能力,我們預計大家樂將跑贏香港市場同業。另外香港政府的防疫抗疫基金將為大家樂提供補助對抗疫情。因此,我們維持“收集”評級但下調目標價至18.20港元,相當於83.8倍/29.3倍/19.2倍2020財年/2021財年/2022財年市盈率。

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