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植耀輝: 基本面仍差油價難彈 疫情重挫糧食產業鏈
阿思達克 04-15 10:57
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,近期最矚目的投資話題,除新冠病毒疫情外,則肯定要數到油價去向。OPEC+上周終達成協議,由5月起每日減產970萬桶。不過消息對油價刺激作用不大,事實上正如筆者上周分析,石油需求顯著放緩已是不爭事實,而且在缺乏儲油裝置下,將令油公司處於兩難局面。何況還有一個最大變數,就是始終產油國本身各懷鬼胎,協議國會否嚴格遵守減產協議,實在存有頗大疑問。因此,雖然預期油價暫會有一定支持,但要大幅反彈機會不高,油股亦不宜抱太大期望矣。

另外,在疫情之下,經濟受到之打擊自不用說。所以當大家見上周美國新申領失業救濟金人數「爆升」至超過660萬人,各地GDP可能出現雙位數百份比下跌時,亦未見為市場帶來恐慌。當然股市下跌,某程度上已反映相關因素。只是調整是否已足夠呢?這亦是筆者近日最常思考的問題。事實上,由疫情所引起之連鎖效應非短期內可以解決,而且影響亦可能較預期更久。

跟大家分享一些例子。疫情之下,糧食供應是其中一個大家較關心的問題,但美國農民現時卻要面對一個艱難決定,由於疫情導致訂單數目減少,加上缺乏工人收割,令美國農民不得不銷毀大量容易腐爛之農產品;同時在收入大減下,更要向政府尋求更多資助。除了農產品外,全球奶農亦逼於無奈地要「倒奶」。英國每天生產約3,500萬升牛奶,很大部分供應予餐廳、啡咖室又或酒店等地方,但如今絕大部分已停業,不過180萬隻乳牛仍源源不絕供應原奶,結果每日便大概有150萬噸牛奶需要傾倒。所以,未來食品價格可能會相當波動,大家亦宜多點關注。

至於整體市況,雖然初步看恆指於24,000點似有支持,但整體投資氣氛仍相當審慎,而且筆者仍較在意企業盈利表現,事實上,首季「盈警潮」勢難免,只是下一季度能否出現顯著反彈,現階段仍言之尚早,所以現市況切忌「心急」,不妨「再看一會」。

股份方面,舜宇(02382.HK)上周公布之出貨量數字依然不俗,不過股價昨日依然偏軟,相信是中通院發布之3月份內地手機總體出貨量按年下跌23.3%有關。雖然預期內地5G以及行業前景仍樂觀,但未來出貨量以至毛利率能否維持仍存有相當變數,所以仍只建議大家耐心待回落至100元以下分段吸納。

(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)~

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