聯邦制藥(03933.HK)2019年報點評：胰島素業務快速增長，維持“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
◆全年淨利潤6.76億元，業績略超預期。公司發佈19年業績，全年實現收入83.9億元，同比增加11.7%；淨利潤6.42億元，同比減少6%；合EPS0.39元。扣除可換股債券嵌入式衍生工具公平值變動等非現金影響，全年核心淨利潤6.76億，相較於18年核心淨利潤5.99億元同比增加13%，業績略超預期，派發末期股息每股7分人民幣。
◆改革成效顯着，胰島素業務快速增長。製劑板塊19年實現收入35.2億元（+21.9%），分部利潤7.8億元（+27.3%），公司加強胰島素業務學術推廣，完成銷售部門改革，胰島素業務快速增長。1）二代胰島素收入6.87億元，銷量同比增長12.7%至1680萬支，預計2020年銷售額增速有望接近10%。2）甘精胰島素收入2.23億元，銷量同比增加158.5%至160萬支，已在全國25個省份中標，快速放量，預計2020年銷售額增速有望超過80%。3）其他品種銷售穩健，鹽酸美金剛實現0.8億元收入（+77.0%）。口服抗生素、維生素C等產品受疫情影響，預計2020年有望實現增長。
◆中間體及原料藥業務20年有望迎來快速增長。中間體板塊收入12.8億元（+3.8%），原料藥板塊收入35.9億元（+6.0%），分別實現分部利潤0.9億元（-69.6%）和2.4億元（+124.2%），19年初以來由於產能供給恢復，6-APA價格逐步下跌至低位。20年以來，6-APA價格企穩回升，最新報價（含税）185元/公斤。總體來看，中間體與原料藥業務板塊價格回暖，有望貢獻穩定利潤。此外，考慮到海外疫情蔓延，阿莫西林、頭孢和克拉維酸鉀等原料藥出口銷售有望迎來顯着增長。
◆現金流大幅改善，研發穩步推進。19年8月，公司公告以10.3億元出售四川成都商業地塊；期後，公司10.95億元公司債券於20年2月償還，均將改善公司的現金流。研發方面，公司儲備品種豐富，在研品種達29種：門冬胰島素和門冬胰島素30已報產，有望於20Q3獲批；德谷胰島素於19年9月獲批臨牀；利拉魯肽進入臨牀試驗，目前各項進展順利。此外公司還重點佈局抗乙肝、類風關、眼科等系列產品，並計劃向新藥領域拓展。
◆維持“買入”評級。公司已於2月下旬逐步復產，考慮COVID-19疫情有望驅動部分出口原料藥量價齊升，上調公司20-21年的核心EPS分別為0.45/0.52元（原0.40/0.47元），新增22年EPS預測為0.60元，同比增長16.1%/14.1%/15.3%，公司業務經營穩健，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：招標降價壓力，原料藥價格波動，新產品推廣不及預期。
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