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中國東方教育 (00667.HK):穩步擴張,穩健經營,維持“買入”評級,目標價16.5港元
格隆匯 04-06 12:03

機構:興業證券

評級:買入

目標價:16.5港元

我們的觀點:2019年公司業績符合預期,新業務穩步進行,老業務毛利率逐步提升,整體經營情況優質穩健。職普比相當及就業形勢趨緊的現狀下,職業教育吸引力不斷提升,橫向拓展及規模化運營則將進一步凸顯公司的品牌優勢。我們調整盈利預測,預計2020-2022年公司營業收入將分別達到47.0、56.7及63.3億元人民幣(下同),同比增長20.3%、20.8%、11.6%,核心淨利潤將分別為10.8、13.0及14.5億元,同比增長19.6%、20.4%及12.2%。維持“買入”評級,維持目標價16.5港元,對應2020-2022年PE分別為30倍、25倍、22倍。

收入穩步增長,派息率49%:2019年公司錄得營業收入39.05億元,同比增長19.6%,從收入結構上看,來自三大主要品牌新東方烹飪、新華電腦、萬通汽修的收入佔比分別為54.7%、19.8%及13.6%,其他品牌入歐米奇、美味學院、華信智原共佔11.8%,佔比繼續提升2pps。2019年末公司宣告派息每股0.21港元,派息率為歸母淨利潤的49%。2020年公司新拓展美業品牌歐曼諦時尚學院成都學校已開始運營,新業務穩步開展。

三大主要品牌毛利率提升,生均獲客成本下降:2019年新東方烹飪、新華電腦、萬通汽車毛利率分別為60.8%、65.6%及51.5%,在長期課程佔比提升及新開學校逐步成熟情況下較2018年均有較大幅度提升。公司繼續優化獲客渠道,2019年生均獲客成本為4574元實現下降,隨着新媒體廣告佔比不斷提升,預計公司獲客成本仍將呈下行趨勢。

經調整淨利潤符合預期,現金及等價物充足:2019年經調整淨利潤9億元,同比增長64.5%,與我們的預期相一致;經調整淨利率達到23%,同比實現6.2pps提升。2019年末公司在賬現金及等價物達到57.8億元,現金充足。

五大區域中心穩步建設,報名工作逐步開展:截至目前,公司的成都區域中心已取得一期50畝土地,上海區域中心選址預計年內可確定。其餘北京、廣州、西安區域中心仍在前期準備當中。受到疫情影響公司開學有所推遲,目前線上、線下報名工作正逐步開展。

風險提示:1)、學校收購整合進程不及預期;2)、聘用及留任的合格教師數不及預期;3)、招收學生數量少於預期;4)、中國教育政策變動。

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