中國南方航空股份(1055.HK)：靜待需求好轉，維持中性評級 ，目標價3.6港元
機構：招商證券
評級：中性
目標價：3.6港元
■ 受國內需求偏弱和經營租賃並表拖累，公司2019年淨利潤同比下降 8.8%，低於預期
■ 2020年業績受到疫情嚴重衝擊，大幅下調公司盈利預測
■ 下調公司目標價18%至3.6港元，維持中性評級
2019年淨利潤同比下滑8.8% 公司2019年營收同比增長7.4%至1,543億元人民幣，營業利潤同比增長 22.9%，淨利潤同比下降8.8%至26億元人民幣，略低於預期。經營數據方 面：1）ASK/RPK分別同比增長9.4%/9.9%，客座率同比提升0.4個百分 點，客公里收益同比下降1.6%，其中國內客公里收益同比下降2.4%，國際 市場表現好於國內；2）由於國際油價下跌和公司成本管控效果持續，公司 座公里成本同比下降3.2%，非油座公里成本同比下降0.7%。
公司淨利低於 預期的主要原因：1）受經濟形勢影響，國內需求偏弱，影響票價水平； 2）波音737MAX停飛事件等因素影響，公司運力增速不及計劃，限制了客 流的增長；3）受經營租賃並表影響，公司利息支出同比大增83%。 疫情將嚴重衝擊2020年表現 新冠疫情對全球航空業產生嚴重衝擊。從公司運營情況看，2月公司52%的 飛機停場，3月需求略有恢復，公司45%的飛機停場；目前公司客座水平約 60%。在國內疫情緩解的同時，國際疫情在2月底3月初大爆發，使疫情影 響時間超出預期。為應對疫情，公司主要採取控制成本、以邊際貢獻為衡 量標準、能飛盡飛的措施，同時推遲飛機引進，保障公司現金流。參考疫 情發展情況，如果國內不發生二次爆發，預計公司國內需求在5、6月有所 恢復，7、8月反彈；國際市場則存在更大不確定性。
下調公司盈利預測與目標價 我們大幅下調了公司盈利預測，預計公司2020年虧損33.7億元人民幣，基 於：1）疫情影響，下調供需和票價預測；2）考慮油價大幅下調、各項費 用減免政策。基於新的盈利預測，維持0.65倍預測市淨率，結合匯率變 化，下調公司目標價18%至3.6港元，維持中性評級。
催化劑：疫情好轉，需求恢復。 風險：疫情影響超出預期。
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