中國光大控股（0165.HK）：壯大直融、剝離資產，開啟價值發現之旅，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：14.60港元
核心觀點：
l 金融央企下屬出色資產管理平台。公司主營私募股權投資業務，近年收入佔比穩定超過85%，包括基金管理業務及自有資金投資業務，其餘主要由持有光大銀行和光大證券貢獻。
l 基金管理業務：產品線豐富，一級市場投資為優勢。截至2019年末資產管理規模達1570億港元，其中一級市場基金佔74%，光大安石管理的房地產基金（478億港元）和子公司光際資本管理的產業併購基金（101億港元）為兩隻最大體量的基金。二級市場基金資產規模達228億港元，旗艦基金成立以來業績表現良好。母基金規模增長較快。
l 自有資金投資業務：由三大部分組成，分別為戰略性產業平台（佈局飛機租賃、養老產業、智能物聯網）、財務性投資（自營投資、基金孵化器投資及司庫）、基石性投資（持股3.0%的光大銀行和21.3%光大證券，提供了紮實的資產增厚效應）。
l 公司的未來看點：（1）私募股權投資AUM穩步提升，管理費+業績報酬模式下營收穩定性有望提升；（2）壯大直接融資背景下，註冊制、再融資均在有序推進，對創投業務的退出具有積極效應。（3）按金控管理辦法要求，公司可能減持或轉讓被動持有的光大銀行和光大證券股權。
l 估值窪地，未來有望迎來價值修復。按分部估值法給予中國光大控股估值：（1）預計2020年公司客户合約收入為6.03億港元，按3月26日收盤恆生指數PE(TTM)為8.88x給予估值，對應市值為54億港元。（2）自有資金投資及種子基金投資：按扣除持股光大證券及光大銀行後0.6xPB計算，對應市值為150億港元。（3）戰略持有光大證券及光大銀行股權，按最新市值20%折價後對應市值為147億港元。（4）整體再給予30%折價，保守計算合理價值為246億港元，對應2020E約為10.2x PE估值，合理股價14.60港元/股。一級市場環境改善、轉讓基石投資完成，估值仍有提升空間。首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
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