中石化(00386.HK)料今年油價或42美元上下波動 低油價或持續更長時間
中石化(00386.HK)董事長張玉卓在全年業績電話會議上表示,預測油價為世界性難題,影響油價走勢的因素太多,但又不能不作出預測。他稱公司每天都在研究國際油價動態,根據眾多大行的平均研判,今年油價料約處每桶42美元,不過上周各大行又紛紛下調對國際油價的預期。他估計,油價今年或於大行估計的42美元上下起伏波動,低油價可能持續比原來估計更長時間。
化工業務方面,高級副總裁喻寶才指,國內化工行業早兩年處長周期的峰值,去年開始進入下行通道,預期下行或將持續數年時間,過程涉及行業結構重大調整,若有新技術研究突破,行業可能較快出現回升。
他提到,今年2月公司化工裝置利用率下跌約10%,至本月已回復正常,但庫存仍在比較高水平。由於中國以外疫情快速上升,可能影響終端需求,未來一至兩個月化工需求可能明顯下跌,或對公司化工業務生產經營造成影響。不過,由於公司主要市場為國內,而且公司市場影響力及控制力強,加上產品創新,藉增加高附加值產品,有信心化工業務今年會比同行做得較好。
至於煉油業務,另一高級副總裁凌逸群稱今年1月公司煉油業務利用率比較正常,2月受疫情影響比較大,利用率有較大跌幅,預計今年首季利用率會受到較大影響,並在第二季有好轉。而近期油品銷售及庫存亦有受影響,公司在3月加大產業鏈調整,於3月底油品庫存已回到比較正常水平。他預期,今年下半年國內油品消費可基本恢復,但全年中國國內油品消費恐怕有負增長。(ek/a) ~
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