一文綜合券商於中石化(00386.HK)公布去年業績後最新目標價及觀點
中石化(00386.HK)今早股價偏淡，券商普遍指其去年業績符預期，並關注其資本開支指引，會在今日分析員會議中了解進一步詳情。中石化公布截至去年12月底止全年業績，營業額29,661.93億元人民幣按年升2.6%。純利574.65億人民幣按年跌6.7%；每股盈利0.475元人民幣，派每股末期息0.19元人民幣，全年派息每股0.31元人民幣，派息率為65.3%。
中石化去年油氣當量產量458.92百萬桶升1.7%。其中，境內原油產量249.43百萬桶，升0.2%；天然氣產量10,477.8億立方英尺，同比增長7.2%。公司去年加工原油2.49億噸，生產成品油1.60億噸，按年增長3.4%，其中，汽油產量增長2.6%，煤油產量增長7.8%。全年成品油總經銷量2.55億噸，按年增長7.3%，其中境內成品油總經銷量1.84億噸按年增長2.3%。煉油事業部經營收入為12,242億元，同比減少3.1%。
【業績符合預期 留意資本支出】
瑞銀表示，中石化去年第四季業績優於市場及該行預期，煉油業務表現勝該行預期，但營銷及化工事業部表現則遜預期，指其盈利及派息總體符合市場預期，雖然國際油價近期大跌，但中石化今年勘探及開採的資本開支指引按年僅跌1%至618億人民幣，指下調資本開支幅度少於預期，而煉油業務開支指引按年跌29%至224億人民幣。
瑞信表示，中石化去年業績符預期，料今年首季業績有可能是公司歷史上最差表現的季度，但仍相信已大致為市場所預期，該行估計中石化2020年每股盈利為0.15元人民幣，較市場同業預測低出60%，並指中石化今年初始資本開支指引1,430億人民幣(按年跌3%)，反映油價調整因素，維持對其「中性」投資評級及目標價4元，料今明兩年股息回報各為2.9厘及5.9厘。
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本網綜合5間券商列出對中石化最新投資評級、目標價及觀點：
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
摩根大通│增持│5.01元
摩根士丹利│增持│4.39元
瑞銀│買入│4.3元
美銀證券│中性│4元
瑞信│中性│4元
券商│觀點
摩根大通│派息輕微勝預期，但自由現金流急跌
摩根士丹利│去年業績及派息付預期，屬油股首選
瑞銀│下調資本開支幅度少於預期
美銀證券│去年純利符預期，關注今年資本開支較高指引
瑞信│去年業績符預期，派息比率一如預期降低
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