大和:光大(0257.HK)電價不明朗因素已反映 升級至優於大市
大和發表研究報告指出,影響光大國際(0257.HK)垃圾發電及生物質業務未來電價水平之政策,仍然懸而未決,但年初至今,公司股價已累跌約36%,相信不確定因素已經反映,所以上調投資評級至“優於大市”,但將12個月目標價由4.95港元減至4.3港元。
光大國際去年純利增加20%,業績公佈後,大和已將其2020-21年的每股盈利預測分別調低9%及調高2%,以反映項目延遲的影響。
大和報告指出,內地計劃調低電價補貼,將影響光大國際新垃圾發電項目的回報率,而調升垃圾處理費,未必可以完全抵銷有關影響,同時,現有項目的補貼延遲發放,也可能影響光大國際的現金流。
報告説,光大國際的資本開支由2018年的135億港元增至2019年底的190億港元,預期今年會進一步增至200億元,雖然資本開支增長減慢,但仍處高位,估計淨負債率將從由去年底的91%,升至今2020-22年的113-140%,預計公司透過增加負債來擴張產能的做法,最終會令現金流受壓,當負債率升至某一水平時,大和不排除光大國際會有股權攤薄之風險。

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