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瑞银财富管理:股市大涨表明央行直接大规模财政支持等受市场欢迎
阿思达克 03-25 14:34
瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监Mark Haefele表示,美国股市周二(24日)剧幅反弹,此前美国参议院在2兆美元刺激方案达成一致上出现曙光。标普500指数收盘劲升9.3%,欧洲斯托克600指数大涨8.4%。10年期美国公债殖利率升至0.84%,而股票隐含波动率VIX指数下跌1点至11天来最低60。另外,其他央行和政府也加大政策支持力度。德国总理默克尔签署了一项紧急补充预算,包括一项新设的纾困基金,用以企业援助、国家支持贷款以及贷款担保。这项预算规模为GDP的3.6%,达到预期区间高端。

该行认为,货币及财政政策制定者的行动,有助於防范出现类似全球金融危机时的信用紧缩。股市大涨,表明央行的「救市手册」加上直接的大规模财政支持大受市场欢迎。令人鼓舞的是,近期股市在低位时波幅已经缩小或是波动率下降,显示市场对於未来可能发生的情景不再那麽惊惶。

瑞银指,倘若有更多疫情成功受到控制的好消息出现,涨势将能够进一步整固。其中意大利新增确诊人数本周一连续第二天下降,点燃两周前的封城措施发挥作用的期望。同时,在疫情看来获控下,湖北省也开始逐步解封,不过,中国其他城市在担心输入感染下仍然采取一些限制措施。

该行的中间情景为欧洲和美国的新增病例於4月中旬达到高峰,进而可在5月中旬解除最严格的限制措施,但疫情反覆意味一些国家在今年内会间歇性地实施限制措施。该行预期,协调一致的货币和财政措施最终将为受影响的企业和行业提供必要的资金支持,但这些措施推出的时间过迟,以至於无法提供全面保护,如同最新的一周失业数据所示。U型经济复苏将会在第四季左右出现,预期标普500指数年底水准约在2,650点。

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