粵豐環保(01381.HK)：2019年業績合乎預期，維持“買入”評級，目標價5.00港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：5.00港元
2019年股東淨利潤同比增長18.3%
受到垃圾處理量及售電量上升支持，公司2019年收入及股東淨利潤分別同比增長18.8%及18.3%至港幣39.5億及8.9億，合乎我們預測之港幣39.6億及9.2億(見圖表1)，也與市場預測之港幣39.3億及8.9億相若。公司總毛利率由2018年的33.0%下跌至2019年的32.0%，因為較低利潤率之建造收入佔總收入比例由25.8%上升至26.5%。雖然如此，公司其它收入同比上升19.2%，優於我們預測。
公司持續擴容
公司每日垃圾總處理能力(含運營中及在建項目)由2018年的29,040噸同比上升46.0%至2019年的42,390噸，目前則達到45,640噸。與過去定下年增長目標為30.0%不同，公司沒有在今年的業績發佈會上提出年增長目標，但是強調只會選取優質新項目。另一方面，經過早前新冠肺炎在中國內地大規模爆發後，公司日常運營在3月份已經大致恢復正常。
盈利預測大致不變
我們對公司的盈利預測大致不變，只是因應公司公佈業績後而作出技術性微調，分別上調2020年和2021年股東淨利潤預測3.0%及2.5%(見圖表2)。
維持“買入”評級
可是，由於資本市場風險增加，我們相應地調升貼現現金流(DCF)分析模型內的風險溢價假設。我們因此將由貼現現金流分析推算的目標價由5.15港元下調至5.00港元(見圖表3-4)，這對應11.2倍2020年市盈率和42.9%上升空間。維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：(一)項目開發延誤；(二)應收賬款風險；(三)併網電價大幅下跌。
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