周大福(01929.HK):多品牌策略提升客户體驗,加快向低線城市滲透,給予“買入”評級,目標價7.5港元
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
目標價:7.5港元
核心觀點:
周大福是中國龍頭珠寶公司,已經實現全產業鏈佈局。公司擁有超過90年的品牌歷史,是中國內地和港澳地區領先的珠寶商。公司採用垂直整合的業務模式,在確保產品品質的同時提高市場反應能力。公司擁有鑽石看貨商資格,出色的研發設計團隊,較高的自產比例,並且通過智能化設施提高生產的彈性。公司在港澳市場和內地高線城市主要採用直營模式,並且藉助於加盟模式佈局內地低線城市。
快速滲透低線城市,把握品牌集中度提升紅利。受益於低線城市居民消費實力的提升以及品牌意識的崛起,低線城市珠寶市場正從渠道驅動向品牌驅動發展。目前公司在低線城市新開的門店主要位於新城鎮,並且通過省代政策、減少前期投資、買斷模式等更加靈活的管理加速下沉。我們認為公司的主要競爭優勢在於,作為港資品牌具有更強的品牌力,並且能夠給予加盟商在品牌管理和運營上更多的支持。
實施多品牌戰略,提供多元化的產品和體驗。目前珠寶行業呈現出年輕化、高端化和個性化的特徵。公司擁有八個珠寶品牌,佈局三大產品線,能更好的滿足不同細分市場的需求。年輕客户是目前珠寶消費的主力軍,公司通過產品、營銷、渠道等方面多層次創新來吸引年輕客户。此外,公司持續優化周大福珠寶門店形象,並且推出高端關聯品牌周大福薈館和周大福藝堂,為高線城市客户提供差異化的產品和體驗,並且有利於提升高線城市的品牌形象。
20-22財年EPS為0.36、0.47和0.56港元/股。考慮到新冠疫情對公司業績的短期影響,我們預計2020-22財年公司的每股收益分別為0.36、0.47和0.56港元/股。我們給予公司2021財年曆史中樞P/E15.8x,計算得到合理價值為7.5港元/股,給予公司買入評級。
風險提示。宏觀經濟低迷抑制對可選消費的需求;香港局面導致訪港內地遊客不及預期;受到疫情影響派息比例可能下滑。
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