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藥明生物(2269.HK):全球領先的生物製劑CDMO行業龍頭,首次覆蓋給予“增持”評級,目標價 127.5 港元
格隆匯 03-18 14:48

機構:中泰證券

評級:增持

目標價:127.5 港元

全球領先的生物製藥 CDMO 行業龍頭

公司是全球領先的開放式、一體化生物製藥能力和技術賦能平台。公司為全球生物製藥 公司和生物技術公司提供全方位的端到端研發服務,幫助任何人、任何公司發現、開發 及生產生物藥,實現從概念到商業化生產的全過程,加速全球生物藥研發進程,降低研 發成本。公司在生物研發服務外包市場份額不斷增長,按照 2018 年收益計算,公司是全 球第四大生物藥研發外包服務提供商,在中國市場則排名第一,市場佔有率高達75.6%。

公司擁有成功的商業模式與優秀技術平台,CRO 板塊將維持快速增長

公司早年以臨牀試驗申請前(IND)前研究為主,積累大量客户基礎,近年來已經有越來 越多項目轉到臨牀試驗階段,並且於 2018 年下半年開始進入商品生產領域,成功打造 (Follow-the-Molecule)商業模式。公司早期積累的項目延用公司服務進入後期研發階 段,而臨牀後期的項目收費通常高於前期。除此以外,由於生物製藥研發服務(CRO)板塊 剛性需求很大,我們預計公司每年仍將獲得 40-50 個新項目,因此預計 2018-21E CRO 板 塊收入 CAGR 將高達 44.6%。

商業生產將逐步發展並注入新的增長點

公司原來的生產外包服務(CMO)板塊主要是做艾滋病孤兒藥生產,但是公司 2020 年 2 月 18 日公佈,與上海海利生物技術共同設立的合營企業藥明海德與疫苗合作伙伴就疫苗 產品訂立總合約生產合同,將於 2022 年左右開始疫苗的代工生產,疫苗行業需求廣闊, 我們認為本次事件對於公司擁有重大戰略意義,將吸引更多疫苗公司客户。

首次覆蓋並給予“增持”評級,目標價 127.5 港元

我們預計公司收入與淨利潤將維持快速增長,2018-21E EPS CAGR 為 43.4%。公司目前股 價對應 2.0 倍 2020E PEG,在可比公司中並不算高,我們認為有提升空間.考慮到公司業務 的持續性特徵和穩定現金流,我們用 DCF 估值,將目標價定為 127.5 元,對應 2.4 倍 PEG,給 予“增持”評級。

風險提示:(一)全球經濟增長放慢客户經營情況惡化可能對公司造成影響;(二)公 司商業化生產業務拓展初期未必成功;(三) 拓展新市場初期可能面對挑戰。

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