鷹普精密(1286.HK):多元化結構平滑波動,航空業務穩步推進,維持“買入”評級,目標價3.48 港元
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
目標價:3.48 港元
核心觀點:
終端市場需求表現出較大差異性:公司發佈 2019 年報,全年實現收入 36.4 億港幣,同比下降 2.9%;實現歸母淨利潤 5.39 億港幣,同比增 長 31.6%,經調整後淨利潤 5.76 億港幣。下游各個終端市場呈現出較 大的差異性。其中,汽車板塊收入 16.4 億港幣,同比下滑 6.2%,主 要在於全球特別是中國地區銷量增速放緩。在工業板塊內,工程機械、 液壓設備、農業機械收入分別同比下降 15.8%、19.5%、14.1%,主要 客户卡特彼勒 20 年 2 月的三月滾動銷售同比下滑 11%,其中亞太地 區下滑 17%,下游需求存在一定壓力。航空和醫療市場整體收入增長 23%,較為穩健。公司下游多元化的需求結構及一站式解決方案的能 力,有效避免了對於單一市場的波動性。
航空業務整體趨勢向上:公司未來幾年的核心看點在於進軍航空、醫 療等高利潤率市場。整體來看,公司航空業務維持穩健增長趨勢,2019 年該業務收入3.44億港幣,同比增長22.1%, 15-19年複合增速28.7%。 但去年以來,波音 737Max 機型出現多起事故,短期內對於公司航空 業務的開拓形成一定壓力。公司計劃 20 年資本開支 6.92 億港幣,其 中航空、醫療市場計劃開支 1.05 港幣。另外,受到中美貿易戰影響, 公司承擔了 25.6 百萬港幣的額外關税。
盈利預測和投資評級:考慮到終端需求出現波動,下游去庫存存在一 定壓力,我們預測公司 20-22 年收入分別為 37/40/44 億港幣;EPS 分 別為 0.29、0.33 和 0.37 港幣/股。港股可比公司業績基本穩健增長, 參考其平均估值水平,我們給予公司 2020 年 12 倍 PE 的合理估值, 對應合理價值 3.48 港幣/股,維持“買入”的評級。
風險提示:中美貿易摩擦風險;終端市場受宏觀經濟影響而週期性變 化;原材料價格快速上漲的風險;海外市場業務風險及匯率風險。
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