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《大行報告》高盛下調第二三季布蘭特油價預測至每桶30美元 對內地煉油企業現金流正面
阿思達克 03-10 10:20
高盛發表報告,大幅下調今年第二季及第三季布蘭特期油價格預測至每桶30美元,並預期至明年第四季,油價將逐步回升至每桶60美元。該行相信,若其預測發生,將觸發內地發改委於2016年設立的煉油產品定價鎖定於每桶40美元的「地板價」政策。高盛表示,基於國際原油價格的改變,內地發改委每10個工作天對煉油產品價格進行調整。於2016年1月,發改委公布新政策,如海外基準油價下降至低於每桶40美元的水平,將不會進一步對煉油產品價格作調整,可能產生的超額利潤會計提風險準備金。該行認為,機制部分是希望維持汽油/柴油定價穩定,部分是支持上游主要油企的現金流,因油價跌至低於盈虧平衡點對油企盈利造成負面影響。該行提到,若布蘭特油價在今年第二季及第三季跌至每桶30美元,內地「地板價」鎖定價格機制將被觸發,而現時油價跌勢及行業經營環境與2016年時大為不同,因油價低於盈虧平衡點,預期上游企業的盈利會繼續面對挑戰,煉油產品價格則可能處穩定水平。高盛又稱,油價處每桶30美元代表中資煉油企業會有吸引的額外現金流,根據2016年的定價機制,有關煉油廠在納入額外利潤後,煉油毛利/現金流料可以翻倍。
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