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騰訊控股(00700.HK)微信生態:價值創造,一直在路上,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 03-09 09:30

機構:國信證券

評級:買入

微信商業化的探索從未止步

微信的發展可劃分為三個階段:1)2011-2013年:零商業化階段。2)2014-2017年:探索ToC廣告變現階段。3)2018年至今:發力B端業務,努力實現廣告擴容。為保持極致的產品體驗,微信的功能添加及商業化相對剋制,但從未放棄探索兼顧用户體驗的廣告形式,長期來看更有利於其穩健成長。

補全內容生態,社交廣告ARPU值有望持續提升

我們測算,當前微信社交廣告的核心變現方式朋友圈、公眾號已相對飽和,新產品小程序、看一看和視頻號是更加優質的變現場景。遠期來看,我們測算看一看、視頻號的潛在廣告價值均在百億級別,隨着微信內容豐富度的不斷提升,用户在微信各產品中的時間分配有望發生遷移,從而拉動微信社交廣告收入的持續增長。

小程序全面商業化,遠期廣告空間超過百億

小程序已經具備了商業化的生態基礎和用户基礎,2019年DAU超過3億、GMV超過8000億,用户停留時間持續提升。微信平台已開發出多種廣告形式滿足流量方的需求,廣告基礎設施已搭建完畢,短期內廣告仍將是小程序的主要變現方式。我們測算,2019年小程序的廣告收入約為20億,長期來看商業價值超過百億。

投資建議:維持“買入”評級

結合絕對估值及相對估值,我們認為公司的合理股價為453-485港幣,對應2020年PE為32-35倍,相對公司當前股價漲幅空間為17%-26%。基於對公司社交廣告業務、海外遊戲及支付業務的長期看好,我們預測公司2019-2021年淨利潤增速分別為21%/23%/17%,維持“買入”評級。

風險提示

廣告市場需求持續疲軟;新產品用户活躍度不及預期;微信商業化進程不及預期;測算誤差導致的風險等。

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