花旗:物管成內房股價驅動力 料合景泰富及世房受惠最大
花旗發表報告表示,物業管理已成為房企的核心價值和股價驅動力,預計擁有物業管理業務較高價值或宣佈分拆計劃的房地產公司將受惠最大,如合景泰富(1813.HK)、世茂房地產(0813.HK)及融創中國(1918.HK)。
報告指出,物業管理已成為房企價值鏈條上愈來愈重要的業務板塊,鑑於其非週期性、經常性現金流和淨現金增長的可見性,其估值溢價明顯高於房地產開發商,包括合景泰富、世茂房地產及融創中國等已公開表示計劃剝離其物業管理部門,而萬科A(000002.SZ)及龍湖地產(0960.HK)亦提供頂級的物業服務。
報告又認為,物業管理業務如單獨估價,可提供約15%的增值潛力,目前其在母公司中淨利潤貢獻中佔比僅3%,合景泰富和世茂房地產分拆物業板塊的增值潛力最大,可提高收益約25%至26%,分拆上市對現有股東和新股東均是雙贏的策略。
另外,中金報告表示,保利物業(6049.HK)是規模最大的國企物業管理企業,其首創鄉鎮“全域化管理”模式,打開了物業管理行業極具潛力的新賽道,該行看好公司盈利增長,首次覆蓋予目標價78.1港元。
中金預計,公司2019-2021年所管理的公共物業項目數量有望實現39%的年化複合增長;社區增值服務業務板塊於2019-2021年收入有望實現60%的年化複合增長。
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