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星展:料内房股去年核心利润升15%至20% 首选禹洲(1628.HK)等
格隆汇 03-04 16:26
星展发表报告指,内房发展商去年度业绩未见大惊喜,预期行业利润平均可增长约20%,核心利润料升15-20%,负债比率较去年中期有所下降,利润率则将由2018年的33%略微压缩至30%。报告指,尽管新型肺炎疫情为市场带来不确定性,但未有内房公司表示打算降低派息率,考虑到2月至3月份预售情况不佳,相信今年销售目标较年初公布初步指标较为审慎。
虽然市场憧憬当局未来会出台支持政策,但星展相信会有发展商选择在公布业绩后配股集资,机会较大的包括恒大(3333.HK)、金茂(0817.HK)、雅居乐(3383.HK)、佳兆业(1638.HK)、万科(2202.HK)及融信(3301.HK);亦有部分因审计延迟而需要延期公布业绩。
该行指,行业目前估值水平为今年预测市盈率约5倍,仅较疫情爆发前的1月份第三周下跌约9%,相信已充分反映投资者对业务表现良好的预期,首选时代中国(1233.HK)及禹洲(1628.HK)等有充足优质土地储备的发展商,另外旭辉(0884.HK)在经历下跌后目前亦较吸引。

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