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新城悦服務(1755.HK):高成長的物管公司,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級,目標價20.55港元
格隆匯 03-04 15:51

機構:廣發證券

評價:買入

目標價:20.55港元

核心觀點:

公司是背靠新城控股集團的高成長性物業管理公司。截至2019年6月末公司在管面積約為44.0百萬平方米,合約管理面積1.33億平方米。公司位列中國指數研究院2019中國物業服務百強企業第13名,2019中國物業服務企業上市公司Top10、2019年度中國物業服務百強企業成長性Top10。

新城控股過往銷售項目為公司增長提供支持。新城控股2017-2019年銷售面積分別為928萬、1812萬和2432萬平方米。新城控股銷售的增長將推動新城悦服務在管面積的增長。截至2019年上半年,新城悦服務的儲備面積接近在管面積的2倍,是目前上市物管公司在管面積成長潛力最大的。

多種因素有望推動公司估值提升。新城控股融資能力正在持續恢復,已經開始拿地。新城悦服務則有望於2020年接近1億平方米在管面積規模,新城悦服務有望於2020年9月加入港股通。

預計2019-2021年EPS分別為0.34元/股、0.53元/股和0.80元/股。公司成長性位於上市公司前列,2019-2021年歸母淨利潤複合增長接近53%。我們看好公司超出同行的業績增長並值得一定溢價,我們給予35倍2020年PE合理估值,合理價值為每股20.55HKD,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。

風險提示:重大安全事故;地產銷售波動;市場競爭加劇。

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