《業績前瞻》券商料騰訊(00700.HK)去年非通用會計準則可多賺22% 聚焦疫情影響
騰訊(00700.HK)將於3月18日公布截至去年底止全年業績,受惠國內主要遊戲表現強勁及海外遊戲的貢獻增加、商業支付服務及其他金融科技服務等所推動。本網綜合25間券商預測,騰訊2019年非通用會計準則(Non-GAAP)純利料介乎923.4億至990億元人民幣,較2018年同期774.69億人民幣,按年增長19.2%至27.8%,中位數為944.98億元人民幣,按年增長22%。綜合31間券商預測,騰訊2019年純利料介乎901.46至1,035.46億元人民幣,較2018年同期787.19億元,按年增長14.5%至31.5%,中位數為940.12億元人民幣,按年增長19.4%。投資者預期騰訊旗下《王者榮耀》數據理想、《和平精英》流水釋放,有助推動公司遊戲業務,兼春節後旗下網遊流水強勁,投資者將聚焦疫情對各業務影響,包括廣告及支付等業務景指引。【遊戲前景強 注疫情影響】花旗表示,預測騰訊2019年非通用會計準則(Non-GAAP)純利錄926.7億人民幣,按年升19.6%,估計去年純利914.69億人民幣按年升16.2%,料銷售收入錄3,723.2億人民幣按年升19.1%;該行料網遊收入錄1,133.97億人民幣按年升9%,料手遊收入657.19億人民幣按年,估計智能手機遊戲收入937.42億人民幣按年增長20.5%,估計來自金融科技及商業業務收入1,001.59億元人民幣按年升36.9%,其中雲業務收入升76.5%至164億人民幣。該行料騰訊去季第四季收入按年升19%至1,007.98億人民幣,非通用會計準則純利按年升21%至238.03億元人民幣。對騰訊去季收入預測較同業保守,相信基於他們對增值服務及金融科技與商業服務收益的估算比較保守。該行指出,雖然騰訊去年第四季遊戲收益季節性相對疲軟,但去季收益受Supercell收入入賬及《和平精英》收入延後入帳所支持。媒體廣告仍然欠缺驚喜,社交廣告則將繼續穩定增長。花旗相信投資者將關注現季度業綪情況,受惠於新型冠狀病毒導致網絡流量增加及遊戲收益上升。該行亦預期市場將關注金融科技業務、未來新遊戲推出、改善微信小程序變現能力的雲服務的發展。該行【廣告收入緩 注商業業務】海通國際預計,騰訊去年第四季端遊收益按年跌10%,與南韓同業Nexon去季在中國業務情況一致,手遊收入則按年升37%,受收購Supercell帶來的收益所支持,扣除收購影響的按年增長為27%。該行指,騰訊雖已測試朋友圈的廣告,但估計廣告收入按年增長將放緩至15%,社交網絡收入按年增長只為17%,受欠缺新視像內容影響。該行亦比對阿里巴巴(09988.HK)近季業績,相信騰訊非核心業務的盈利能力,包括支付及雲服務或在去年第四季改善。該行預測騰訊去年純利按年升20%至941.56億元人民幣,非通用會計準則純利按年22%,料收入按年升19%至3,732.83億元人民幣。------------------------------------------------本網綜合25間券商預測,騰訊2019年非通用會計準則(Non-GAAP)純利料介乎923.4億至990億元人民幣,較2018年同期774.69億人民幣,按年增長19.2%至27.8%,中位數為944.98億元人民幣,按年增長22%。券商│2019年非通用會計準則純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅光大證券│990億元│+27.8%瑞銀│962.85億元│+24.3%摩根大通│962.8億元│+24.3%中銀國際│961.44億元│+24.1%興業証券│957.74億元│+23.6%麥格理│955億元│+23.3%匯豐環球研究│950.3億元│+22.7%大華繼顯│948.4億元│+22.4%建銀國際│948億元│+22.4%中金│947.67億元│+22.3%招商證券國際│946.79億元│+22.2%941.36申萬宏源│945.76億元│+22.1%高盛│944.98億元│+22%瑞信│944.77億元│+22%交銀國際│943.29億元│+21.8%摩根士丹利│942.09億元│+21.6%野村│941.86億元│+21.6%海通國際│941.56億元│+21.5%安信證券│941.36億元│+21.5%中信證券│939億元│+21.2%里昂│934.23億元│+20.6%Jefferies│933.6億元│+20.5%中信建投│929.67億元│+20%花旗│926.7億元│+19.6%巴克萊│923.4億元│+19.2%按騰訊2018非通用會計準則純利774.69億元計算------------------------------------------------綜合31間券商預測,騰訊2019年純利料介乎901.46至1,035.46億元人民幣,較2018年同期787.19億元,按年增長14.5%至31.5%,中位數為940.12億元人民幣,按年增長19.4%。券商│2019年純利預測(人民幣)│按年變幅中銀國際│1,035.46億元│+31.5%招銀國際│1,013.82億元│+28.8%招商證券國際│1,002.53億元│+27.4%中金│970.25億元│+23.3%麥格理│957億元│+21.6%摩根士丹利│956.5億元│+21.5%國信證券│955.7億元│+21.4%興業証券│953.14億元│+21.1%華創證券│949.75億元│+20.7%申萬宏源│947.63億元│+20.4%國泰君安證券│947.62億元│+20.4%海通國際│941.56億元│+19.6%美銀證券│941.28億元│+19.6%高盛│941.36億元│+19.6%華泰金控│940.46億元│+19.5%大華繼顯│940.12億元│+19.4%建銀國際│940億元│+19.4%中信證券│936億元│+18.9%東吳證券│935.61億元│+18.9%交銀國際│935.49億元│+18.8%瑞銀│933.78億元│+18.6%野村│932.74億元│+18.5%法巴│930.35億元│+18.2%匯豐環球研究│930.16億元│+18.2%安信證券│929.67億元│+18.1%中信建投│919.45億元│+16.8%巴克萊│916.8億元│+16.5%花旗│914.69億元│+16.2%里昂│910.1億元│+15.6%光大證券│902億元│+14.6%Jefferies│901.46億元│+14.5%按騰計2018年純利787.19億元計算------------------------------------------------綜合35間券商預測,騰訊2019年收入料介乎3,708.66億至3,948億元人民幣,較2018年同期3,126.94億元,按年增長18.4%至26.3%,中位數為3,757.08億元人民幣,按年增長20.2%。券商│2019年收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅光大證券│3,948億元│+26.3%招商證券國際│3,808.63億元│+21.8%麥格理│3,808億元│+21.8%招銀國際│3,806.42億元│+21.7%國信證券│3,801.07億元│+21.6%華創證券│3,781.49億元│+20.9%交銀國際│3,776.56億元│+20.8%國泰君安證券│3,774.71億元│+20.7%中銀國際│3,773.62億元│+20.7%華泰金控│3,768.74億元│+20.5%美銀證券│3,767.27億元│+20.5%野村│3,766.03億元│+20.4%里昂│3,764.91億元│+20.4%瑞信│3,764.87億元│+20.4%瑞銀│3,761.11億元│+20.3%大華繼顯│3,759.82億元│+20.2%中信證券│3,758.00億元│+20.2%申萬宏源│3,757.08億元│+20.2%中國銀河國際│3,756.7億元│+20.1%興業証券│3,755.74億元│+20.1%高盛│3,754.76億元│+20.1%中信建投│3,752.76億元│+20%建銀國際│3,745.6億元│+19.8%匯豐環球研究│3,741.08億元│+19.6%安信證券│3,739.89億元│+19.6%巴克萊│3,736.74億元│+19.5%法巴│3,735.25億元│+19.5%摩根大通│3,734.5億元│+19.4%海通國際│3,732.83億元│+19.4%中金│3,730.96億元│+19.3%東吳證券│3,730.5億元│+19.3%Jefferies│3,730.13億元│+19.3%摩根士丹利│3,730.06億元│+19.3%花旗│3,723.2億元│+19.1%農銀國際│3,708.66億元│+18.6%按騰訊2018年度收入3,126.94億元計算------------------------------------------------綜合6間券商預測,騰訊2019年旗下網絡遊戲收入料介乎1,114億至1,136.7億元人民幣,較2018年同期1,040億元,按年增長7.1%至9.3%,中位數為1,114億元人民幣,按年增長7.1%。券商│2019年網遊收入預測(人民幣)│按年變幅瑞銀│1,136.7億元│+9.3%申萬宏源│1,133.35億元│+9.0%中信建投│1,131.92億元│+8.8%海通國際│1,128.21億元│+8.5%摩根士丹利│1,119.45億元│+7.6%東吳證券│1,114億元│+7.1%按騰訊2018年度網絡遊戲收入1,040億元計算
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