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中金:維持中國金茂(0817.HK)“跑贏行業”評級 目標價6.61港元
格隆匯 02-19 17:39

中金公司發報告稱,維持中國金茂(0817.HK)“跑贏行業”評級和目標價6.61港元(對應8.5倍2020年市盈率,30%的NAV折讓,較當前股價存在13%上行空間)。公司目前交易於7.6倍2020年和6倍2021年市盈率,及38%的NAV折讓。

該行稱,2019下半年金茂新增4個城市運營項目(截至上半年底為14個),並預計城市運營項目貢獻了2019全年新拿地的40%,而這一比例有望在2021年達到60%。2019年新拿地平均權益比率達65%,此外該行預計城市運營項目擁有較高的毛利率(35%-40%)。

金茂2019年銷售額達1608億元(同比增長26%)。該行表示,預計公司2020和2021年銷售每年將增長25%左右,至2000億元和2500億元上下,還預計2020年銷售中城市運營項目貢獻可能提升至30%,這將幫助整體二級開發毛利率穩定在25%-30%。

該行還稱,預計2019、2020和2021年核心淨利潤分別為63億元、79億元和100億元,對應同比增速24%、25%和27%。2019-2020年盈利增速和質量將短暫承壓,主要因結算主體仍為利潤率和權益比率較低的老項目。2021年隨着城市運營項目開始集中結轉,整體盈利增速和質量可能顯著改善。

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