新城悦服務(1755.HK):業績大幅預增展現強勁趨勢,維持“買入”評級,目標價至19.0港元
機構:國盛證券
評級:買入
目標價:19.0港元
2019年業績預增80%以上略超預期,展現強勁增長趨勢。公司發佈正面盈利預告,預計2019年全年歸屬本公司權益持有人的合併淨利潤同比增長至少80%(對應2.71億元),略超預期,展現出強勁的增長勢頭。按此預計,2019年下半年實現歸母淨利潤將不低於1.53億元,同比增長超過60%。公司業績快速增長主要原因系公司在管面積持續增長及增值服務收入快速提升所致,尤其是社區增值服務及智慧園區服務。
儲備面積極為充足,在管面積還將快速擴張。2019年關聯公司新城控股實現合同銷售面積約2432萬平米,YoY+34.2%,延續較快增長,我們預計全年竣工交付有望實現年初目標1881萬平米,這將為公司在管面積增長貢獻主要動力。2019年公司通過市場化競標加快第三方市場拓展,同時以股權合作形式落地多個第三方市場項目,預計第三方市場合約亦快速增長。我們預計2019年末公司儲備面積/在管面積分別約為9200萬平米/6000萬平米,未來隨着持續轉化公司基礎物管收入還將快速增長。
社區增值服務增長快,潛力大。雖然公司2019年社區增值服務收入快速增長,但2019H1收入佔比8.3%仍處於行業偏低水平,未來提升空間較大;隨着在管面積快速擴大,規模效應有助於社區增值服務各細分業務進一步做強做優。開發商增值服務及專業服務方面,公司預計2020年案場協銷、智能安保工程等業務關聯交易金額上限約10.7億元,YoY+7.9%。
疫情短期影響有限,長期利好物業行業發展。今年疫情對成本端影響有限,主要增加一些防護、消殺耗材成本,但對最主要的人力成本增加較少;收入端主要一定程度上影響開發商增值服務收入,對基礎物管收入幾乎不影響,社區增值服務各類收入影響不一(例如線上銷售會增加)且公司收入佔比較低。中長期看,物業公司在此次疫情中的優異表現與積極作用將進一步贏得政策面的支持及業主對付費服務的認可,利好行業長期發展。
投資建議:基於業績預增公告,我們上調公司2019-2021年歸母淨利潤至2.71/4.00/5.60億元(原為2.56/3.83/5.53億元),同比增長80.0%/47.6%/40.1%,對應EPS分別為0.33/0.49/0.68元,2018-2021年CAGR為43.8%。當前股價對應PE分別為44.8/30.3/21.7倍,考慮到公司較為明確的增長趨勢及當前行業整體估值水平,上調公司目標價至19.0港元(對應2020年35倍PE),維持“買入”評級。
風險提示:實控人事件潛在後續風險、中長期毛利率下降風險。

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