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中金:手機產業復工延遲 料安卓產業鏈所受影響大於蘋果
格隆匯 02-11 15:16
中金髮表報告表示,通過整理該行看到,主要手機產業鏈的公司大部分於2月10日正式復工。但根據目前的情況,認為各大手機廠商復工後的產能爬坡將慢於往年。
首先,湖北籍員工的復工時間可能將延後,約佔整體員工數的5至10%。 以珠三角為例,據國家衞健委2018年底發佈的《中國流動人口發展報告2018》,珠三角來自外省的流動人口中,湖北省人口排名第四,達181.2萬人,佔珠三角省際流動人口的10%。對於湖北籍員工,由於疫情的防控形勢,許多公司採取上班後延長隔離的做法,該行認為可能影響開工後的員工上崗率。
此外,部分地區防控形勢依然嚴峻,不排除開工延後。 浙江省台州市規定全市企業原則上不得早於2月17日24時前復工。而部分省市和行業公司也在考慮將復工日期推遲到2月17日。員工人數越多的行業復工難度越大。由於消費電子組裝行業需要的人數較多,因此復工的壓力大於上游。儘管鴻海、比亞迪等公司均表示將根據政府要求在2月10日開始復工,但也有消息指出,復工的進程可能不及預期。鴻海和比亞迪電子(0285.HK) 在近期均開始在廠區內設置口罩生產線,積極防控。
中金亦認為,需求變化漸趨明朗,料安卓產業鏈所受影響可能大於蘋果,由於安卓一般上半年發佈全年的主力機型,而蘋果主力機型一般9月發佈,疫情的時間正趕上安卓主力機型的拉貨期,所以該行認為此次對安卓產業鏈的影響可能大於蘋果。
據小米(1810.HK) 預計國內智能手機市場將顯著下滑,但是線上渠道受到的影響相對較小。小米在2月5日的分析師會議表示,第三方研究機構預測極端情況下,國內智能手機市場出貨量2020年首季度將下滑30至35%,全年將下滑10至15%。但是該行估計,小米集團表現或好於行業,主要受益於公司線上銷售佔比較高(小米集團線上銷售佔比約為56%,高於OPPO的14%和vivo的20%)。 小米集團表示,公司並未看到國內運營商5G建設放緩以及公司海外智能手機銷售下滑的跡像。華為、OPPO、vivo 等品牌目前新機發布時間還沒確定,有待後續觀察。
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