郭家耀: 港股累积升幅甚多 疫情考验内银韧性
正荣金融业务部副总裁郭家耀称,美股周四(6日)继续向上,中方调低750亿美元美国货品关税,显示双方贸易关系进一步缓和,有利大市气氛,加上投资者相信疫情对经济打击有限,三大指数再创收市新高。美元走势靠稳,美国十年期债息持平於1.64厘水平,油价及金价则轻微向好。港股预托证券表现偏软,预料大市早段跟随低开。
内地股市继续反弹,沪综指收市上升1.7%,沪深两市成交额增加至9,135亿元人民币。
港股大幅回升,市场憧憬有药品可控制肺炎疫情,加上中美贸易关系缓和,刺激大市大幅向上,突破多条移动平均线水平。不过,由於近日大市累积升幅甚多,加上接力上升的蓝筹多属落後板块,预料短期进一步向上突破空间不大,指数於27,500点阻力不轻,下方支持在 26,800点水平。
另评级机构标准普尔预测,由於新型冠状病毒的蔓延规模空前,中国银行体系的韧性或将受到严峻考验。持久的公共卫生紧急状态,有可能导致中国银行业的不良贷款率飙升两倍以上,达到约6.3%的水平,相当於增加5.6万亿元人民币的不良贷款,中国银行业的资本充足率也将因此而下降3.86个百分点。
中国银行体系,尤其是中小型地方银行,已因经济增速放缓和贷款违约急速增加,承受不断加大的压力。另一方面,为缓解宏观经济面临的压力,中央要求银行业放宽追收借贷人的还款,并有可能调低息率为企业减压,息差收入受压及资产质素转弱,均不利银行业的估值水平。
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