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《大行报告》瑞银:若疫情季尾前受控 料内地首季经济增长放缓至3.8%
阿思达克 02-06 15:03

瑞银发表的研究报告指,1月份国家统计局及财新的PMI均向下,但相关数据并未反映武汉肺炎爆发的影响,而1、2月的实际活动数据将於3月公布,该行估计出入口均呈弱势,而CPI及PPI均较高,而受季节性因素影响新增贷款或较强,但贷款增长按年计则会较慢。

该行的高频数据监测显示,1月份内地活动减缓,相信部分是受假期及病毒爆发所影响,而民营电厂煤炭用量亦按年减慢,另外值得留意的是30大中城市住宅销售减慢,而农历年间旅游业等的相关活动亦受疫情影响而大幅缩减。

该行假设疫情在第一季完结前受控,估计首季内地GDP将放慢至3.8%,但第二至第四季将现反弹,全年计经济增长将放慢至5.4%。该行估计对消费冲击显着,特别是旅游、酒店、餐饮及运输行业,而固定资产投资、物业建筑、工业生产及出口所受影响虽较少,但与沙士比较仍较严重。该行估计政府将推宽松政策以支撑增长,包括是为受影响的中小企等提供税务宽免,并会定向支持受影响家庭及地区,在基建投资上亦会有额外的帮助,料将额外降准100个基点,而MLF则料续削15-20个基点。

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